Gale Warning 349, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 112245
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121130-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 40 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL DISSIPATES TUE EVENING.
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 460 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT 975 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTH OF ATKA AT 987 MB
WED AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE
AND STRETCHES ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TUE NIGHT.


$$

PKZ150-121130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO NW 10
KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-121130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-121130-
BRISTOL BAY-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-121130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-121130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-121130-
UNALASKA BAY-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-121130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT EARLY EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT BY
MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-121130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-121130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-121130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-121130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-121130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ178-121130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ179-121130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-121130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-121130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1
FOOT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-121130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS ROTATING A FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ANOTHER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS PRODUCING THE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION THAT ARE FUELING THE GUSTY GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA...TURNAGAIN ARM AND OUT OF THE
KNIK RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP
ALONG THE COPPER RIVER AS GULKANA HAS PICKED UP SOUTH WINDS. IN
THE BERING SEA TWO WEAK LOWS AT THE SURFACE ARE ROTATING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A GOOD JOB AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE. THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH
RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE QPF IS IN
GREAT AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS AND AS USUAL THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO BETTER DEFINING THE DOWNSLOPE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DECAYING WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKENING RESULTING IN THE GAP WINDS
DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE A TROUGH
EXITING THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE A SMALL WINDOW OF CLEARING SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES SEEING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE CROSS-BARRIER
FLOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA REGIONS
HEADING INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF RAIN
AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE THE SOUTHERN EASTERN KENAI
REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ENDING QUICKLY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE SEASON
HOWEVER...AND WITH LITTLE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LIMITING
SOLAR HEATING...NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL THEN PARTIALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR BRISTOL BAY...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING 925 MB TEMPERATURES MOVE OVERHEAD.
WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL THEN KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY WITH JUST
PASSING SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH THE AKPEN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE ESPECIALLY TO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
THE AKPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN AND NARROW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING UPSTREAM IMPINGES UPON IT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL A WEATHER
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND SOME
RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...THE REMNANTS OF A GULF OF ALASKA LOW
WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING...LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID APRIL SUN RAMPS UP. OTHERWISE...RATHER
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW SKIRTING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH THE LOW TRACKS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
MAINLAND...THIS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CROSS-BARRIER COMPONENT TO THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH DRIER INLAND CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AS SPRING CONTINUES TO SURGE FORWARD AT
A RAPID PACE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 138 150.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...JA