Gale Warning 325, NWS Anchorage, AK

327 
FZAK51 PAFC 012327
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021200-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHES BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-021200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021200-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021200-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 13
FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021200-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021200-
MARMOT BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS CONTROLLED SOUTHERN ALASKAS
ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
BREAK DOWN AS A STACKED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH UPSTREAM BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS
ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO EVOLVE...SO FOR NOW THE RECENT PATTERN
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA PERSISTS. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND INTO THE INTERIOR AS THE MOISTURE SPILLS
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD AND
STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE NORTON SOUND AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE WARMER AIR IS SLOWLY STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A MIXED BAG
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER THE AREA. RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN OVER BETHEL
SUPPORTED BY SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE DELTA IS
EXPERIENCING SNOW AS COLD STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SLOWS THE
ADVANCE OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE..AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
SHIFTS NORTHWARD GUSTY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS. A NORTHWARD ADVANCING GALE FORCE FRONT OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS BRINGING GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. QUIETER WEATHER IS
IN PLACE OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WHICH IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LACK OF SURFACE SNOW COVER AND WARM
AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS SUPPORTING NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS...THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN...ANCHORAGE...AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE ONLY
FACTOR KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MODERATED IS MID-LEVEL
AND HIGH- LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTICALLY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DIVING IN TO MORE
LOCAL DETAILS...THE MAIN PROBLEM AREA OF FOCUS TODAY IS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE A COLD POOL REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
WHILE IT SLOWLY ERODES FURTHER EAST. QUESTIONS ARISE AS TO HOW
LONG THAT COLD POOL WILL STICK AROUND..WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
FOCUS TODAY HAS BEEN THE HANDLING OF A NORTH PACIFIC TRIPLE POINT
LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WHILE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MODELS
ARE HANDLING WINDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE STRENGTHENING
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES
SYNOPTICALLY BETWEEN THE MODELS...A HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/GEM
BLEND WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA
PANHANDLE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
AND INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH TO CROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE THE
GULF WITH PRESSURE RISES FURTHER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY GAP
WINDS ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY. GENERALLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING
MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN DOWNSLOPING
REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA CONTINUES TO WRAP-UP
EARLY THIS EVENING (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF BETHEL)...AS A VERY
POTENT WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTH (AS SEEN ON THE 12Z BETHEL RAOB)...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO TAP INTO AND FILTER COLDER AIR
FROM THE INTERIOR. FREEZING RAIN BY NATURE WARMS UP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS LATENT HEAT IS RELEASED WHEN THE RAIN FREEZES.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE INTERIOR HAS
HINDERED SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED
TODAY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WEST OF BETHEL...BEFORE PICKING
UP AGAIN OVER THE ENTIRE ZONE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE NEXT FRONT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE OF MUCH
CONCERN...SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING
MUCH OF THE EVENT. THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WINDS AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE EASTERN HALF BERING SEA...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT SWATH OF
PRESSURE RISES ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN...WHICH CAN
PRODUCE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER GAP DRIVEN WINDS ALONG THE AKPEN
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
STARTING THIS WEEKEND THE CURRENT PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING/NOPAC WITH RIDGING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS RIDGING DIMINISHES AND
SHIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK
FROM THE AKPEN/SOUTHWEST MAINLAND (WHERE IT CURRENT IS) EASTWARD
INTO THE GULF. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND SOUTH MAINLAND AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN WILL
HEAVILY FAVOR TO GULF COAST...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
MAINLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERSISTENT
DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FROM THE CURRENT NEAR
RECORD WARMTH AS RIDGING DISSIPATES...HOWEVER WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW MOST OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 177 179 181 185 352 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DEK