Gale Warning 305, NWS Anchorage, AK

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 062307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071330-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATES BY THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 52N 169W
DEVELOPS ALONG THAT FRONT EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN THE LOW MOVES
TO 53N 169W AT 983 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW UP TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER
TROUGH IS SWINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MOST
CHALLENGING STORM IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT BRINGS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW. CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS STORM HAS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING ACCOMPANIED BY STORM GUSTS AND RAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE WESTERN BERING STORM SYSTEM
DIMINISHES AND ANOTHER APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THERE WERE A FEW CHANGES MADE
ACROSS THE BERING FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO INCREASE WINDS
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE UTILIZED A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
MODELS WITH THE NAM USED FOR LOCAL WIND EDITS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS TRACKING JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WILL SWING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF AND THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WATER COULD MOVE ONSHORE WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND THE EASTERN KENAI REGION. WHILE THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE NORTHERN WESTERN KENAI AREA WILL HAVE DRIER
CONDITIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW. THE GAP
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT
GRADUALLY DRIFTS NORTH AND FILLS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A
GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE COOL AIR ALOFT TO GENERATE
INSTABILITY...THESE SMALL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN TO A BROAD TROUGH AND LIFT NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CONTINUING AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN AND MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF HAS BEEN BRINGING SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY GALES
WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE FOR A PUSH OF STORM FORCE WESTERLIES INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND EAST DOWN THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHEAR APART TO MORE OF A
DIFFUSE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO BE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
LATE ON THURSDAY RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THAT WILL REST OVER EASTERN ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BLOCK THE PREVIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE BERING. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TROUGH BRINGING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND COASTAL AREAS. NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP LOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS VARY WIDELY ON ITS POTENTIAL DEPTH AND WHETHER IT WOULD
MOVE INTO THE BERING OR STAY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD RESULT IN MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...177 178.
         GALE WARNING...175 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK