Gale Warning 306, NWS Anchorage, AK

466 
FZAK61 PAFC 071132
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080130-
332 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 54N 143W MOVES TO 60N 145W LATE THU AND MAINTAINS
STRENGTH...THEN MOVES INLAND FRI MORNING AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATES. A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-080130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
332 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
332 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

409 
FZAK61 PAFC 072257
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081315-
257 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 144W MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI
MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND. A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MIDDAY FRI...REACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN STALLS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A
991 MB LOW NEAR 55N 152W SAT MORNING MOVES TO 57N 155W AT 990 MB
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-081315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
257 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
257 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

118 
FZAK61 PAFC 081134
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090115-
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN STALLS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A
995 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR 52N 153W TONIGHT AND
MOVES INLAND NEAR 59N 158W SAT MIDDAY AT 992 MB.

$$

PKZ351-090115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS ON THE
EARLY MORNING WEATHER MAP. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING COMPLEX LOW
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SECOND
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND
BROUGHT STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. WINDS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED ACCORDING
TO BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LIMITED SCATTEROMETER DATA...WHICH IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW ITSELF
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MODELS DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW A JET STREAK ENTERING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX GALES OR STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW TO THE WESTERN ALEUTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THIS JET STREAK WEAKENS AND DROPS
SOUTH. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS RESIDES A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS.

LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY BROAD AND EXTENSIVE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN RUSSIA TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THERE
ARE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED WITHING THIS TROUGH WITH
UPPER LEVEL CENTERS ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOWS.
THE BIGGEST FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS THIS POTENT
PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS JUST PUSHED OFF THE RUSSIAN COAST. IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK COULD BE THE
A CATALYST TO RE-AMPLIFY THE TROUGH WHICH COULD KEEP MUCH OF
ALASKA IN A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS IS
BY FAR A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY BECAUSE IT
KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF MUCH LONGER WHILE OTHER MODELS
OPEN IT UP AND ALLOW IT TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE CURRENT FRONT DISSIPATING THURSDAY MORNING AND A NEW SFC
LOW SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF SMALL DETAILS
THAT VARY BUT WILL BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

FOR MODEL USE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE...A BLEND TO THE GFS WAS
USED FOR THE WESTERN DOMAIN MAINLY TO FOCUS ON A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THIS DIRECTION FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS WHICH HAS LED TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH THE FEATURE DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HANDLES THE WEAKENING FRONT AND PARENT LOW VERY WELL. FOR
THE EAST DOMAIN...THE NAM WAS USED EARLY ON MAINLY FOR DETAILS
FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION DATA WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ON
THURSDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PLACEMENT ISSUES IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA RISES...WIND FIELDS WERE NOT TOUCHED AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
VARYING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER...POPS WERE DECREASED
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRIER
PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SHOWERY WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THU. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND JUST WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THU
NIGHT...SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN. THE
EXCEPTION IS THAT A LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MAY
SPREAD SOME MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THU
NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE GULF TODAY WILL BRING BRISK SUB GALE WINDS TO NUMEROUS MARINE
ZONES TODAY. GAP LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. WINDS IN MOST AREAS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN KENAI PEN/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THU.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THIS
FEATURE IS THE COLD AIR ALOFT...AROUND -35C AT 500 MB. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SEASONABLY WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE RELEASED WHEN THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA...THEN SHIFTING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE INSTABILITY
PRESENT I THINK A LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDED IT IN THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA BUT DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
MAINLAND UNTIL IT MOVES OUT. OVERALL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN PLACES AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BERING SEA FRONT IS STRETCHING OUT FROM THE WESTERN BERING
THROUGH THE UNALASKA ISLAND AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN ALMOST IN PLACE TODAY MAKING IT TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WHILE FALLING APART. THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN BUT WILL SWING A WARM FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON LATE THURSDAY...SPAWNING A TRIPLE
POINT LOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
LATE ON THURSDAY RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THAT WILL REST OVER EASTERN ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BLOCK THE PREVIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE BERING. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TROUGH BRINGING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND COASTAL AREAS. NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP LOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS VARY WIDELY ON ITS POTENTIAL DEPTH AND WHETHER IT WOULD
MOVE INTO THE BERING OR STAY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD RESULT IN MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...174 176 177 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DK