Gale Warning 288, NWS Anchorage, AK

764 
FZAK51 PAFC 232351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241300-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 190 NM SOUTH OF SITKA EARLY THU MORNING...THEN
DISSIPATE THU EVENING OVER THE SOUTH PANHANDLE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON THU AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ119-241300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-241300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-241300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-241300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-241300-
PORT VALDEZ-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-241300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-241300-
VALDEZ ARM-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-241300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-241300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-241300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-241300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-241300-
CHINIAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-241300-
MARMOT BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-241300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-241300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-241300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-241300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE GULF COAST. WEAK DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS CONFINED MOST OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS TO NEAR
KACHEMAK BAY AND UPSLOPE AREAS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND THE SW
SUSITNA VALLEY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NO FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED BY THE OBSERVATION NETWORK
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...THE MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF BETHEL AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS WOULD INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE AK PEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER WINDS (SATELLITE DERIVED)
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED GALES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULF OFFSHORE MARINE AREA (351). FAIR SKIES
WITH RIDGING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH
NORMALLY WOULD ALLOWED RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM. IN THIS CASE...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING MAINLAND RIDGE AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCED ENOUGH OF A WIND TO KEEP
THE AIR STIRRED UP AND PREVENT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE BASIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL USE THE THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM HEAVILY IN THE EAST WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ARE DIMINISHING AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST FALLS APART. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KEEPING THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF FROM MAKING IT OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN LOW FOR THIS
FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE GULF AND WILL TRACK EAST AS IT DIMINISHES.
ON THURSDAY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BRINGING
BACK A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STAY IN A GENERALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION SERVES
AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. AT THAT TIME...THE
UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA....BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT SOME LOCATIONS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY MOSTLY SNOW UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST. THERE IS A A
CHANCE THURSDAY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER THE DELTA
FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE SETUP
LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL...THUS ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTH TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM AS THE REGION STAYS IN A MEAN TROUGH AND A STOUT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN BERING...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE PRIBILOFS AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL STAY IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND A DISORGANIZED TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THE LONGWAVE
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AS
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON FRIDAY SPREADING STEADY RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND OVER THE COOK INLET REGION.

INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUS TROUGH EXITS QUICKLY AND IS
REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A
LARGE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO THE MAINLAND BY THE LATE WEEKEND AND
USHER IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD SIGNAL A WARM AND MOIST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 351 352
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...ML