Gale Warning 236, NWS Anchorage, AK

075 
FZAK61 PAFC 231148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240100-
348 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 52N 145W WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES TO
54N 136W EARLY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON THU AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH.

$$

PKZ351-240100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
348 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-240100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
348 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

930 
FZAK61 PAFC 232352
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241400-
352 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 986 MB LOW 54N 140W WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES TO
54N 136W EARLY THU MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE THU EVENING OVER THE
SOUTH PANHANDLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF
FROM THE SOUTH ON THU AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ351-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
352 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ352-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
352 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE GULF COAST. WEAK DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS CONFINED MOST OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS TO NEAR
KACHEMAK BAY AND UPSLOPE AREAS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND THE SW
SUSITNA VALLEY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NO FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED BY THE OBSERVATION NETWORK
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...THE MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF BETHEL AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS WOULD INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE AK PEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER WINDS (SATELLITE DERIVED)
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED GALES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULF OFFSHORE MARINE AREA (351). FAIR SKIES
WITH RIDGING WAS EVIDENT OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH
NORMALLY WOULD ALLOWED RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM. IN THIS CASE...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING MAINLAND RIDGE AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCED ENOUGH OF A WIND TO KEEP
THE AIR STIRRED UP AND PREVENT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE BASIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL USE THE THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM HEAVILY IN THE EAST WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ARE DIMINISHING AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST FALLS APART. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KEEPING THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF FROM MAKING IT OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN LOW FOR THIS
FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE GULF AND WILL TRACK EAST AS IT DIMINISHES.
ON THURSDAY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BRINGING
BACK A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STAY IN A GENERALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION SERVES
AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. AT THAT TIME...THE
UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA....BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT SOME LOCATIONS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY MOSTLY SNOW UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST. THERE IS A A
CHANCE THURSDAY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER THE DELTA
FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE SETUP
LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL...THUS ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTH TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM AS THE REGION STAYS IN A MEAN TROUGH AND A STOUT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN BERING...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE PRIBILOFS AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL STAY IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND A DISORGANIZED TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THE LONGWAVE
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AS
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON FRIDAY SPREADING STEADY RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND OVER THE COOK INLET REGION.

INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUS TROUGH EXITS QUICKLY AND IS
REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A
LARGE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO THE MAINLAND BY THE LATE WEEKEND AND
USHER IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD SIGNAL A WARM AND MOIST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138
         STORM 351 352
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...ML