Gale Warning 267, NWS Anchorage, AK

698 
FZAK52 PAFC 112354
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121300-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 120 NM NORTH
OF SHEMYA AT 1005 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE
WESTERN BERING BY SUN AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW WILL FORM 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHIGNIK TONIGHT AND TRACK TO 115 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY
AT 992 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON

$$

PKZ150-121300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-121300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-121300-
BRISTOL BAY-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-121300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10
KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-121300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-121300-
UNALASKA BAY-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-121300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-121300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-121300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-121300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA IN THE
MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-121300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-121300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-121300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
FROM SHEMYA W.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING E OF SHEMYA.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-121300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-121300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-121300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-121300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
254 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 60N.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 60N.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS ARE NEAR THE STATE OF ALASKA. THE
STRONGER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS THE FEATURE
DRIVING MOST OF THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. EVIDENCE OF THE SECOND
LOW...WHICH IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE.
IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED IN TO THAT STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
LAND...BUT IS BEING MET WITH RESISTANCE IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONT IS MOSTLY SHOWERY AND THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP OUTFLOW WINDS TO A MINIMUM AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

OUT WEST THE SYSTEM IN THE BERING IS ALSO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT HAVE ONLY REACHED 75 MPH
A COUPLE OF TIMES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE OCCLUSION ARE WARM AND
PRECIP HAS BEEN RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW EXCEPT IN THE PRIBILOFS. OVER
THE MAINLAND A DEFORMATION ZONE HAS CAUSED WEAK PRECIPITATION BUT
THIS HAS CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH THE LOW
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AK ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NAM WAS CHOSEN FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST MAINLY TO PICK UP ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
FEATURES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOME SNEAKY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPILLED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE FORM OF A PRETTY OVERCAST DECK. THIS DECK SHOULD WEAKEN AND
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST BRINGING CLEARER SKY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
COOK INLET REGION. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CHUGACH WILL ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DISSIPATES LEAVING
THE AREA UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INLAND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE BERING.
AS A RESULT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAINLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MAINLAND AREAS FOG FREE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN CONTRAST...STEADY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE LOW SOUTH OF UNALASKA SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING NEAR HURRICANE-STRENGTH
GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...NOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WHILE HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WILL
LINGER OVER THE PRIBILOFS INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTING STEADY SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
QUIET WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...KEEPING THE REGION DRY AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE BERING ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
ACTIVE THROUGH MONDAY AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
THEN SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES TO SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS THE FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DEPICTING THE
SAME LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT ARE VASTLY DISPARATE IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL...AND THE
TIMING ON SHORTWAVE-LENGTH TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AFTER A NICE PERIOD OF
WEATHER...A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL INLAND SNOW THREATS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 174 175 176.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 170 172 177.
 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EN
LONG TERM...JA