Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

858 
FZAK61 PAFC 112358
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
258 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121345-
258 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-121345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
258 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-121345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
258 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS ARE NEAR THE STATE OF ALASKA. THE
STRONGER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS THE FEATURE
DRIVING MOST OF THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. EVIDENCE OF THE SECOND
LOW...WHICH IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE.
IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED IN TO THAT STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
LAND...BUT IS BEING MET WITH RESISTANCE IN THE FORM OF A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONT IS MOSTLY SHOWERY AND THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP OUTFLOW WINDS TO A MINIMUM AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

OUT WEST THE SYSTEM IN THE BERING IS ALSO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT HAVE ONLY REACHED 75 MPH
A COUPLE OF TIMES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE OCCLUSION ARE WARM AND
PRECIP HAS BEEN RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW EXCEPT IN THE PRIBILOFS. OVER
THE MAINLAND A DEFORMATION ZONE HAS CAUSED WEAK PRECIPITATION BUT
THIS HAS CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH THE LOW
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AK ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NAM WAS CHOSEN FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST MAINLY TO PICK UP ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
FEATURES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOME SNEAKY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPILLED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE FORM OF A PRETTY OVERCAST DECK. THIS DECK SHOULD WEAKEN AND
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST BRINGING CLEARER SKY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
COOK INLET REGION. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CHUGACH WILL ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DISSIPATES LEAVING
THE AREA UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INLAND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
RETURN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE BERING.
AS A RESULT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAINLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MAINLAND AREAS FOG FREE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN CONTRAST...STEADY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE LOW SOUTH OF UNALASKA SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING NEAR HURRICANE-STRENGTH
GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...NOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WHILE HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WILL
LINGER OVER THE PRIBILOFS INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTING STEADY SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
QUIET WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...KEEPING THE REGION DRY AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE BERING ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
ACTIVE THROUGH MONDAY AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
THEN SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES TO SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS THE FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DEPICTING THE
SAME LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT ARE VASTLY DISPARATE IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL...AND THE
TIMING ON SHORTWAVE-LENGTH TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AFTER A NICE PERIOD OF
WEATHER...A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL INLAND SNOW THREATS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 174 175 176.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 170 172 177.
 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EN
LONG TERM...JA