Gale Warning 230, NWS Anchorage, AK

127 
FZAK62 PAFC 171111
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180100-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 54N 171E MOVES TO 57N 164E AT 998 MB THU NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS NEAR 50N 179E AT 1008 MB SOUTH OF SHEMYA
FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO 50N 176W AT 1004 MB SAT MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SAT MIDDAY.

$$

PKZ411-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 58N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

292 
FZAK62 PAFC 172253
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
253 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181415-
253 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE BERING SEA. A 1011 MB LOW AT 47N 172E
MOVES TO 52N 179E AS A 1004 MB LOW THEN SHIFTS TO 50N 175W WITH NO
CHANGE IN PRESSURE FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
253 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-181415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
253 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-181415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
253 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-181415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
253 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
546 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
MAINLAND FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. FURTHER WEST...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINS
OFF THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA COAST AND HEADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY BRINGING
WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...COLDER AIR HAS FILTERED DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF SNOW WHICH PRODUCED A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS
PROGRESSED NORTHWARD OVER BOTH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND SUSITNA
VALLEY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...FOR THE FINE
SCALE DETAILS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT/TIMING AND TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GFS AND EC ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY RE-FORMING ALONG THE
CHUGACH/KENAI/TALKEETNA RANGES DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PERSISTING
INTO THE EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM AND GEM RE-DEVELOP THIS
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS AND EC ARE KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER
WEST...STRETCHING AS FAR WEST AS THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY. THE NAM HOWEVER KEEPS MUCH OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY DRY...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
SETTING UP FROM VALDEZ AND EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE
DISCREPANCIES EARLY ON...AND THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
THE NEXT WAVE LATER IN THE WEEK.

OUT WEST...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AS WELL AS THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AKPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT FORMS SOUTHWEST OF
ADAK FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN THE FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER
WITH BEING THE SOUTHERN-MOST SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF COOK INLET AND THE SOUTHERN AND
THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...WESTERN TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TODAY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH GULF
COAST WHICH WILL SEE SNOW OR A MIX WITH BROAD UNDER PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON THU...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A GALE FRONT
MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM KING SALMON SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDDAY AS THE VORT
MAX QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FEEL THE
IMPACTS OF THIS VORT MAX AS IT HAS ALLOWED VERY COLD AIR (-15 TO
-20 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850 MB) TO BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA DURING THE DAY ONCE THE VORT MAX COMES THROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...THIS AIR IS VERY DRY AND
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE
MAINLAND. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS THE GRADIENT INCREASED. THE INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE MAINLAND ON THE DRY SIDE BUT MAY INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF KING SALMON. ALL IN ALL...THIS LOOKS TO BE A
MORE TYPICAL WINTER SET-UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BE REACHING PEAK INTENSITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHEMYA HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS UP TO 61 KT
(70 MPH) THIS MORNING AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS 50 TO 60 KT
WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
ZONES. THIS FRONT WILL ELONGATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CLASHES WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND CAUSE THE
FRONT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES FROM
NEAR SHEMYA INTO SIBERIA. A DECENT SLUG OF WARM AIR IS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY WARMED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. WITH THIS WARMER AIR...BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
AN ISSUE AS SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED OVER SHEMYA AND BE EJECTED NEAR ADAK LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF INCREASED RAINFALL
AND GALE FORCE WINDS BACK TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO CLASH WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MAINLAND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE WEEKEND AS IT IS REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION OVER THE BERING WILL INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LOW SLIDES
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHAIN...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHWARD
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...111 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...132 150 155 175 176 177.
         STORM WARNING...178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...TP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
129 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 AM     SNOW             10 NW MOOSE CREEK STATE 61.77N 149.30W
03/16/2016  E5.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT

0656 AM     SNOW             27 NNE CHASE            62.82N 149.91W
03/16/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW COMPRESSED FROM YESTERDAY. STORM TOTAL 5 INCHES.

0656 AM     SNOW             11 ESE TRAPPER CREEK    62.17N 150.12W
03/16/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NEAR TALKEETNA SPUR 5 INCHES WET SNOW

0707 AM     SNOW             9 SW THOMPSON PASS      61.06N 145.95W
03/16/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL

1200 PM     SNOW             ANCHORAGE               61.22N 149.87W
03/16/2016  M2.6 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1200 PM     SNOW             8 NW PALMER             61.69N 149.24W
03/16/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALPINE HISTORIC PARK

1200 PM     SNOW             3 S MEADOW LAKES        61.58N 149.61W
03/16/2016  E4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            5 MI NORTH OF WASILLA

1200 PM     SNOW             8 NW PALMER             61.69N 149.24W
03/16/2016  E4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FISHHOOK RD

1200 PM     SNOW             19 SW CANTWELL          63.19N 149.36W
03/16/2016  E10.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            6-7 INCHES OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL 10 INCHES.

1200 PM     SNOW             13 NNW CHASE            62.63N 150.23W
03/16/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

KUTZ