Gale Warning 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

120 
FZAK52 PAFC 250037
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251315-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 964 MB LOW 220 NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 40 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY AT 971 MB
THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL FRI
AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH. A 995 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA WILL DRIFT TO 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA BY FRI AFTERNOON
AT 981 MB.

$$

PKZ150-251315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ155-251315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND TO 20 KT EXCEPT S WIND 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-251315-
BRISTOL BAY-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-251315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-251315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-251315-
UNALASKA BAY-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-251315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-251315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-251315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-251315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-251315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-251315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-251315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-251315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14
FT. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-251315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-251315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-251315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
337 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AROUND A LARGE CONSOLIDATED
ANCHOR LOW CENTERED 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
MOST ACTIVE AND IMPACTFUL QUADRANT OF THIS COMPLEX LOW IS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A TRAIN OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH TOWARD THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

WEATHER RADAR HAS SHOWN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
COAST AS THE NEXT STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. WITH THE
700-MB JET STREAKS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE 500-MB
AND 850-MB JET STREAKS AND WITH AN ONGOING LOW-STABILITY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE GULF...WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION
ONTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAIN RANGES.
HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY DECENT DOWN-INLET FLOW PROVIDING A CONTINUAL
SOURCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST...EAST
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO STORM-FORCE STRENGTH FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF AND INNER WATERS FROM LOWER COOK INLET THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS TO SHELIKOF STRAIT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST
TOWARD THE INNER WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD-SCALE
PATTERN. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT STORM
TRACKS OF THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NORTH TO THE GULF COAST...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS
THEY APPROACH THE GULF COAST FAVORED BARRIER-JET AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG STORM FORCE FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AS EVIDENCED BY THE MIDDLETON RADAR AND BUOYS ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS IS SPREADING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS
WITH SOME LOCAL LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI...AND A FEW
FLURRIES ACROSS ANCHORAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THEN
STALL TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A SERIES OF WEAKER LOWS ALONG THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL
SWING NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP TO INLAND
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH ANY INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND PASSAGE CANAL THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRINING GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WEST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES
SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEST OF KING SALMON IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS THE
DOWNSLOPE WILL BE LESS. AREAS CLOSER TO BETHEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO REMAIN SNOW FOR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THERE ARE LOW QPF VALUES THAT FAR WEST SO SNOWFALL...WHILE LIKELY
TO OCCUR...WILL BE OF LIMITED AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FAR EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE WARMING UP SOME WITH THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TOMORROW AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THERE SHOULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING
THEM COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN EAST OF THAT AREA SO THE VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE REDUCED
OVERLY LOW IN ANY BLOWING SNOW THAT OCCURS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FORECAST THINKING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH HELP TO STEER A SERIES OF LOWS TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP BROAD ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK WHILE INLAND AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL RANGES STAY
RELATIVELY DRY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE COOK INLET AND MAT-SU REGIONS WILL
COME AS INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES PUSH INLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND
AGAIN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE BERING
WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY BENIGN SHOWERY REGIME ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE LOWS
APPROACHING THE AKPEN WILL BRING THE OCCASIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 125 130 131.
 GALE WARNING 129 132 136 137 138 139 140 150 155 160 165 170 171
172 173 174 179 180 185.
 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EZ
LONG TERM...CB