Gale Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

730 
FZAK61 PAFC 241241
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250230-
341 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE AND
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. A 977 MB LOW 560 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
MOVES TO 330 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 973 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-250230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
341 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ352-250230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
341 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

957 
FZAK61 PAFC 250001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251415-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE AND DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE EXITING. A 977 MB LOW NEAR 54N 145W LATE
THU MOVES TO 59N 152W FRI AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ351-251415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ352-251415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
509 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STORY LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE JET
STREAM. ONE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE
OTHER IS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND...BOTH AROUND 50N. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA...CREATING A FAVORABLE GRADIENT FOR UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE LAST FEW DAYS IS PULLING NORTHWARD OVER THE
BERING STRAIT...TAKING THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH IT...WHICH IS
BEING REPLACED BY A MORE STABLE REGIME WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEMS.

SHOWERS ARE ENDING AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT EXITS TO THE NORTH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT IS STILL A WAYS TO THE SOUTH...CURRENTLY
MAX GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE OUT
TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING PRETTY QUICKLY WITH ITS FRONT WASHING OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS LOW CENTERS...AS WELL AS SURFACE
PRESSURE CENTERS...ARE PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON AMONG GUIDANCE.
THE FIRST MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD ALONG THE FRONT. IT LOOKS TO BE A STORM FORCE FRONT BUT
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION AS IT CROSSES THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
NAM. TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE IS WELL HANDLED WITH THE FRONT
REACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON IN THE MODELS AND SHOULD MOVE UP INTO THE
GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE NEXT BIG FRONT HEADS NORTH IN THE GULF TODAY. THIS WILL
SWITCH THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE
OFFSHORE/DOWN INLET...WITH A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR
KODIAK ISLAND THE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
FACING MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GAP WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AS WILL AS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH A MIX ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE
PREDOMINANTLY TURNING TO ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO PUSH OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE DRYING KEEPING ONLY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH
INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA- SUSITNA VALLEYS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A WAVE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WED MAKES LANDFALL
OVER THE KENAI PEN WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO SPILL WEST ACROSS THE CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS. THE COPPER BASIN
WILL BE DRY WITH PRECIPITATION ONLY IMPACTING THE MOUNTAINS.

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN ADVANCE/WITH THE FRONT MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS MANY MARINE AREAS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH GENERALLY GALES CONTINUING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF INTO WED NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
WED. DEPENDING ON THE SOLUTION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BOUT OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AGAIN WED EVENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON QUITE THE WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SWINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY BE ON
THE RISE AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MAINLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE EVENT FOR
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AS CROSS BARRIER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE. THIS WILL LEAVE
AREAS LIKE KING SALMON...IGIUGIG AND SLEETMUTE ON THE DRY SIDE
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BASED
ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS CHANGE FROM MIXED
PRECIP TO RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS ALL OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY WARM AIR MASS IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE ONLY FORECASTED TO BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS OF 46
IN KING SALMON AND 35 IN BETHEL). STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT BECOMES FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO PUSH WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. DUE
TO THE THE NATURE OF THE WARM AIR MOVING UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BUT AREAS LIKE
PFAFF MINE AND FOURPEAKED COULD SEE WINDS UP TO 70 KTS (ONE TO
THREE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE MSL). THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE WITH AVIATION INTERESTS IN MIND. THESE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA STARTS OFF QUIETLY AS A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AS ITS PARENT LOW
MERGES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE COMMUNITIES
OF ADAK...ATKA AND SHEMYA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE EASTERN BERING SEA...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS FRONT COULD
BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOFS SHOULD THIS FRONT STALL
OUT. ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THAT
RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH
THE LACK OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE
ICE EDGE STILL NOT INSIDE MARINE ZONE 414...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS A MATTER OF FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ACTUALLY WARM A BIT AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WHICH MAKES BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EVEN LESS LIKELY DUE TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE
HALF MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE SNOW BUT AN ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE A VERY FAMILIAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A STOUT RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BROAD
ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS SEVERAL NORTH PACIFIC LOWS
MOVES TOWARDS THE AK PENINSULA AND PUSH ASSOCIATED FRONTS INTO THE
GULF. INLAND AREAS INCLUDING ANCHORAGE WILL PREDOMINANTLY SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN A RELATIVELY PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
REGIME...WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL OCCASIONALLY BEING ENHANCED AS
INDIVIDUAL WAVES PUSH INLAND FROM THE GULF.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND POTENCY OF EACH
OF THESE WAVES AS THEY TRACK INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE BERING SEA
AS THE JET REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR 40N...WITH THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST BERING AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED NORTH PACIFIC LOWS APPROACH THE AKPEN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...119 120 130 131 132 137 138 150 155.
         GALE WARNING...125 136 139 140 141 160 165 170 171 172
                        173 174 179 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...TP