Gale Warning 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

043 
FZAK51 PAFC 230132
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231415-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. A FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY TUE AND PUSH ONSHORE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-231415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231415-
PORT VALDEZ-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231415-
VALDEZ ARM-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231415-
CHINIAK BAY-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231415-
MARMOT BAY-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
432 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

129 
FZAK51 PAFC 231235
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240130-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WED MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WED EVENING. 


$$

PKZ119-240130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-240130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ121-240130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-240130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ126-240130-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-240130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-240130-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-240130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-240130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-240130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ132-240130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ136-240130-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ137-240130-
MARMOT BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ138-240130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-240130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-240130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-240130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

014 
FZAK51 PAFC 240006
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241315-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST GULF
COASTS. WEAK TROUGHS FOLLOW THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-241315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-241315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ121-241315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-241315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-241315-
PORT VALDEZ-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-241315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-241315-
VALDEZ ARM-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-241315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-241315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-241315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-241315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-241315-
CHINIAK BAY-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ137-241315-
MARMOT BAY-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ138-241315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-241315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-241315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-241315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
306 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
NOW THAT THE LAST FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS MUCH MORE BENIGN. BROAD AND WEAK TROUGHING
SITS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WITH THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER BRISTOL BAY...HEADING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BUT NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS MOST OF THE WINTER. THERE ARE TWO STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS...ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING A SURFACE SYSTEM AS WELL...AND A CUT OFF LOW AROUND 40N
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND HAS
USED UP MOST OF ITS ENERGY...THOUGH WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE...LOTS OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THAT INSTABILITY IS THE FOCUS FOR
PLENTIFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY SATELLITE ALONG THE
COAST OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
TERRAIN IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TERRAIN...THE COOK INLET REGION
REMAINS MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED AND DRY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
LINGERING ALONG THE TERRAIN SAVE FOR KACHEMAK BAY WHERE SOME
SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE NAM SEEMED TO VERIFY THE BEST WITH REGARDS TO THE LAST
EVENT...AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THIS
VERY ANOMALOUS EVENT COMPARED TO GLOBAL GUIDANCE. NOW THAT THE
PATTERN HAS SETTLED A LITTLE BIT AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY HAS BEEN
USED UP...GUIDANCE HAS FAR LESS DISCREPANCIES THAN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHOWERY PATTERN
CONTINUING WHILE THE COLD AIR STICKS AROUND TODAY. BEYOND
THAT...THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE MID-LATITUDES WILL GET PICKED UP BY
THE ALEUTIAN LOW...SENDING A FRONT UP INTO THE GULF. AGREEMENT IS
PRETTY GOOD ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
LOOKS AT THIS POINT TO BE A GALE/STORM FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD AND UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD POOL OF AIR AT 500 MB (-37C TO -38C) HAS HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HAS GIVEN RISE TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS MORNING....WHICH
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
STABLE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM AIR ALOFT. ON TUE THE FOCUS
SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING LOW HEADING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF. WINDS IN ADVANCE
AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING GALES TO STORM FORCE
WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTS WHICH
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LEAN TOWARD RAIN AS 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMER ON THIS ROUND. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS ALSO SHOW A MORE
CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE TO THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH/KENAI
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A DECAYING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO FIZZLE OUT. THE BULK OF THE
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO A LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN CAPES OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. BY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...LEAVING
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE A BRIEF SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO. PATCHY FOG (VSBY POSSIBLY LESS THAN ONE MILE) IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID-MORNING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
WESTERN CAPES AS FLOW BECOMES WEAK FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE FAVORABLE (ALBEIT SHALLOW) HYDROLAPSES TO
SUPPORT FOG AND LOW STRATUS. THERE APPEARS THAT ENOUGH MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT THE FOG BUT LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC SWINGS A FRONT NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION WILL BE LARGELY NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP LOCATIONS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN RAGE (KING SALMON AND SIMILAR LOCATIONS) ON THE DRY SIDE.
THIS SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONE CONCERN WITH THE
FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW (MAINLY
NEAR ADAK) AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
BE OBSERVED BY MIDDAY AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SNOWFALL OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BOTH SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL AS
VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM THE BLOWING SNOW. THUS...NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT VISIBILITIES NEAR ADAK
COULD DROP TO A HALF MILE BRIEFLY AT THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOWFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND PART
OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. TO THE EAST...A STOUT BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH
EACH WAVE THAT TRACKS UP THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING
FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED IS THE LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PUSH FURTHER INLAND BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI AND AREAS
SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE AREAS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPILL-OVER AROUND THE
UPPER COOK INLET AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS WILL
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THUS A SECOND
SHOT OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SNOW
INLAND AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUT WEST...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL CAUSE SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE RANGE AND ALASKA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY. AS THE LARGE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS
OVER THE SW MAINLAND WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERS AND HAVE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...AND TRACKING TOWARD THE AKPEN
BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PHASING WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OVER NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER A FAIR STRETCH OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST OF
THESE TWO SYSTEM HOWEVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 131 132 138 150 .
         GALE WARNING...119 136 137 139 141 155 160 165 170 171
                        172 174 175 176 177 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...TP