Brisk Wind Advisory 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

056 
FZAK52 PAFC 241232
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250200-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 958 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 80 NM NORTH OF
COLD BAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 972 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO
NEAR SAINT PAUL AT THE SAME STRENGTH THU NIGHT. A 996 MB LOW 240
NM WEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AND STRENGTHENS
TO 985 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 180 NM SOUTH OF ATTU AT 984 MB
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-250200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-250200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 20
KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ160-250200-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-250200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-250200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-250200-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-250200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
DUTCH HARBOR E. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-250200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-250200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-250200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-250200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-250200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE IN THE
MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-250200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-250200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY FROM ST PAUL ISLAND NORTH.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-250200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM CAPE NEWENHAM S
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING
TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-250200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-250200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
509 AM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STORY LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE JET
STREAM. ONE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE
OTHER IS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND...BOTH AROUND 50N. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA...CREATING A FAVORABLE GRADIENT FOR UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE LAST FEW DAYS IS PULLING NORTHWARD OVER THE
BERING STRAIT...TAKING THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH IT...WHICH IS
BEING REPLACED BY A MORE STABLE REGIME WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEMS.

SHOWERS ARE ENDING AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT EXITS TO THE NORTH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT IS STILL A WAYS TO THE SOUTH...CURRENTLY
MAX GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE OUT
TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING PRETTY QUICKLY WITH ITS FRONT WASHING OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS LOW CENTERS...AS WELL AS SURFACE
PRESSURE CENTERS...ARE PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON AMONG GUIDANCE.
THE FIRST MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD ALONG THE FRONT. IT LOOKS TO BE A STORM FORCE FRONT BUT
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION AS IT CROSSES THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
NAM. TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE IS WELL HANDLED WITH THE FRONT
REACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON IN THE MODELS AND SHOULD MOVE UP INTO THE
GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE NEXT BIG FRONT HEADS NORTH IN THE GULF TODAY. THIS WILL
SWITCH THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE
OFFSHORE/DOWN INLET...WITH A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR
KODIAK ISLAND THE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
FACING MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GAP WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AS WILL AS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH A MIX ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE
PREDOMINANTLY TURNING TO ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO PUSH OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE DRYING KEEPING ONLY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH
INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA- SUSITNA VALLEYS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A WAVE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WED MAKES LANDFALL
OVER THE KENAI PEN WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO SPILL WEST ACROSS THE CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS. THE COPPER BASIN
WILL BE DRY WITH PRECIPITATION ONLY IMPACTING THE MOUNTAINS.

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN ADVANCE/WITH THE FRONT MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS MANY MARINE AREAS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH GENERALLY GALES CONTINUING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF INTO WED NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
WED. DEPENDING ON THE SOLUTION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BOUT OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AGAIN WED EVENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON QUITE THE WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SWINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY BE ON
THE RISE AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MAINLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE EVENT FOR
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AS CROSS BARRIER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE. THIS WILL LEAVE
AREAS LIKE KING SALMON...IGIUGIG AND SLEETMUTE ON THE DRY SIDE
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BASED
ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS CHANGE FROM MIXED
PRECIP TO RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS ALL OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY WARM AIR MASS IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE ONLY FORECASTED TO BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS OF 46
IN KING SALMON AND 35 IN BETHEL). STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT BECOMES FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO PUSH WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. DUE
TO THE THE NATURE OF THE WARM AIR MOVING UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BUT AREAS LIKE
PFAFF MINE AND FOURPEAKED COULD SEE WINDS UP TO 70 KTS (ONE TO
THREE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE MSL). THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE WITH AVIATION INTERESTS IN MIND. THESE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA STARTS OFF QUIETLY AS A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AS ITS PARENT LOW
MERGES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE COMMUNITIES
OF ADAK...ATKA AND SHEMYA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE EASTERN BERING SEA...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS FRONT COULD
BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOFS SHOULD THIS FRONT STALL
OUT. ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THAT
RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH
THE LACK OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE
ICE EDGE STILL NOT INSIDE MARINE ZONE 414...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS A MATTER OF FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ACTUALLY WARM A BIT AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WHICH MAKES BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EVEN LESS LIKELY DUE TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE
HALF MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE SNOW BUT AN ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE A VERY FAMILIAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A STOUT RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BROAD
ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS SEVERAL NORTH PACIFIC LOWS
MOVES TOWARDS THE AK PENINSULA AND PUSH ASSOCIATED FRONTS INTO THE
GULF. INLAND AREAS INCLUDING ANCHORAGE WILL PREDOMINANTLY SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN A RELATIVELY PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
REGIME...WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL OCCASIONALLY BEING ENHANCED AS
INDIVIDUAL WAVES PUSH INLAND FROM THE GULF.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND POTENCY OF EACH
OF THESE WAVES AS THEY TRACK INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE BERING SEA
AS THE JET REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR 40N...WITH THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST BERING AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED NORTH PACIFIC LOWS APPROACH THE AKPEN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...119 120 130 131 132 137 138 150 155.
         GALE WARNING...125 136 139 140 141 160 165 170 171 172
                        173 174 179 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...TP