Gale Warning 126, NWS Anchorage, AK

850 
FZAK61 PAFC 252355
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261415-
255 PM AKST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE EXITING. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 51N
145W MOVES TO 58N 150W AT 979 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVES INLAND
FRI NIGHT. A 963 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW SAT MORNING MOVES TO 54N
153W SAT AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ351-261415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
255 PM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ352-261415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
255 PM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

137 
FZAK61 PAFC 261253
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270215-
353 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 55N 146W WILL TRACK TO 58N 151W AT 978 MB THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A
962 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 57N 148W AS A BROAD 971 MB
LOW SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-270215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
353 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

...STORM WARNING ON SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
TO 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-270215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
353 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.

$$

033 
FZAK61 PAFC 270016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271445-
316 PM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 57N 151W WILL PUSH INLAND WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT. A 967 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 55N 153W AT
961 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 57N 164W AT 969 MB SUN
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS THE GULF SAT MORNING AND
MOVES INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-271445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 PM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-271445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 PM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

102 
FZAK61 PAFC 271300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280145-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 962 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD 965 MB LOW NEAR 56N
155W TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA SUN. A 974 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW TONIGHT WILL TRACK
TO 52N 158W AT 966 MB SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-280145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 TO 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-280145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST WED FEB 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE LOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE JET STREAM RUNNING TO
THE SOUTH OF IT. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND...AS THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY.
THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA IS
WARM AND IT IT STAY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO KEEP THE DOWNSLOPE GOING FOR THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUT IN THE BERING
SEA THE FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHWEST WHICH IS BRINING IN SOME COLDER
AIR SO PRECIP TYPES OUT THAT WAY WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
SOME TIMING INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF ON
FRIDAY AND THE BERING SEA LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EC ARE A
BIT FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THE GULF LOW ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED
WITH THE NAM. THE EC WEAKENS THIS LOW FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OVERALL
SOLUTION. IN THE BERING SEA THE LOW IS ELONGATING WHICH OFTEN
GIVE THE MODELS PROBLEMS AS TO WHERE THE MAIN LOW CENTER OR
CENTERS WILL BE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREAS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND IN THIS AREA AS
WELL AS IT CAPTURES THE DUAL LOW CENTERS WITH THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BERING SEA.
THERE IS ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY LATE SUNDAY
WHICH IS ALSO HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE MODELS. THE
GFS IS A HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS POINT SHOULD
PUSH THE FORECAST IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION FOR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING GULF LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THEN INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
MORE RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
THE VALDEZ AREA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE PASS. AREAS
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS LIKE ANCHORAGE INTO THE MAT VALLEY WILL
EXPERIENCE A STRONG DOWNSLOPE SHADOW. GIVEN THE FAST MOVING AND
COMPACT NATURE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS FROM
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO ANCHORAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
THIS WILL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY BEFORE DRYING
OUT BRIEFLY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON
FRIDAY...SPREADING MORE COASTAL PRECIPITATION AND BRINGING GALE
FORCE EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. IN OTHER WORDS...LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS ON
REPEAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...THU AND
FRI)...SEVERAL FRONTS WILL SWING FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AK OVER THE SHORT TERM. EACH ONE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THEY WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH THE BEST LIKELIHOOD ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE TERRAIN (KILBUCKS AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE). EACH FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING A SURGE OF WARM AIR. SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN LOW-LYING VALLEYS AND
THE FURTHEST NORTH SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...THU AND
FRI)...A DEFORMATION AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE SHEMYA AND A
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPING TOWARDS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE THE
HIGHLIGHTS TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION BAND IS KEEPING SOME DECENT
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A COUPLE OF
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND
SOME DRIFTING SNOW. FOR THE PRIBS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO
BLAST THROUGH THE ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN AREAS OF SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS WILL TREND DOWN BY THU MORNING AND BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY THU AFTERNOON HELPING TO PUSH THE SNOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

ELSEWHERE...THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TWO WEEKS AGO. WEAK
BROAD LOWS OVER THE AKPEN AND EASTERN BERING WILL KEEP WARM
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THEIR EASTERN FLANKS WITH COLD...SHOWERY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AND STOUT RIDGING
OVER WESTERN CANADA HELP TO STEER A SERIES OF LOWS TOWARDS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA OR FAR WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP BROAD
ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL FRONTS TRACK
ACROSS THE GULF...WHILE INLAND AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
RANGES STAY RELATIVELY DRY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE BERING WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY BENIGN
SHOWERY REGIME ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. THE LOWS APPROACHING THE AKPEN WILL BRING THE OCCASIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 125 129 130 131 132 139 150 155 179
185.
 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...CB