Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

523 
FZAK51 PAFC 271254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280145-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH WED
NIGHT THEN WEAKENS THROUGH THU AND DISSIPATES EARLY FRI MORNING. A
961 MB LOW 278 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON MOVES TO
50 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 968 MB EARLY THU MORNING...THEN
MOVES INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA.

$$

PKZ119-280145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 26 FT DIMINISHING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-280145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-280145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-280145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-280145-
PORT VALDEZ-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-280145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-280145-
VALDEZ ARM-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-280145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-280145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-280145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-280145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-280145-
CHINIAK BAY-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-280145-
MARMOT BAY-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-280145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-280145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-280145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-280145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
354 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE AOR REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS AS LOWS DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AMID STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. A STRONG
ZONAL JET STREAK AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THIS
MORNING INDICATES THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEAR ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A STORM FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE
WITHIN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA IS ATTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUATION OF A SHOWERY
REGIME OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE BERING SEA. INLAND
AREAS OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION ARE SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE COOLER SURFACE AIR IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS
KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF BETHEL.
FURTHER WEST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. BENIGN
SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THIS REGION AMID A LACK OF ANY
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTICALLY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TO MID TERM. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT
TRACKS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS STILL
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS MOVING THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD AND INLAND. WITH REGARD TO THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
MATURE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GEM AND THE NAM DEVELOP THE
SECONDARY LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WHILE THE GFS AND THE EC DEVELOP THE FEATURE WED NIGHT
IN THE BRISTOL BAY VICINITY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPACTS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECONDARY LOW WERE FAIRLY MINIMAL AND A GFS/EC
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED SYNOPTICALLY THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK SHOWERY REGIME WILL START OFF THE EVENING FORECAST IN MOST
PLACES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...WHILE A
LITTLE LESSER CHANCE EXISTS AROUND THE COOK INLET REGION. THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC WILL SWING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HOWEVER...AS THE PARENT LOW IS SO FAR
AWAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND ELONGATING AS IT
APPROACHES. STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARD HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
THOMPSON PASS AND TURNAGAIN PASS. CROSS BARRIER FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE MOST OF THE COOK INLET REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE/MOISTURE
BLOCKING CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID...THE FRONT IS COMING FROM
PRETTY FAR FROM THE SOUTH AND HAS A GOOD TAP OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. WITH SUCH A DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD MAKE IT DOWN BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
REMAINS IN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND DRYING INLAND.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
COOK INLET...REMAINING ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET STREAM CONTINUES TO SPIN UP LOWS ALONG THE
EXIT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A DISSIPATING LOW HAS NOW
MOVED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...KEEPING SOME SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA. WARMER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BRINGING
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COOL DOWN AS THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH THIS PATTERN...DOWNSLOPE FORCING WILL BE RATHER
PRONOUNCED WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...EXCEPT IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOST OF THE BERING CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN A RATHER PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF CYCLONIC AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF
NORTH PACIFIC LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
EASTERN BERING EVERY FEW DAYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
REGION. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
WITH WARMER AIR TO THE EAST...AND COLDER/UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE FROM THE WESTERN BERING TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN BERING. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL NUANCES THAT WILL CAUSE A BIT
OF VARIATION TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE FIRST ITEM OF INTEREST
WILL BE THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. WITH ALL OF THE FRONTS
SLAMMING INTO THE GULF COAST AND EXPENDING MOST OF THEIR ENERGY
THERE...THE FLOW SHIFTS EVER-SO SLIGHTLY TO MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO MAKE
IT INTO COOK INLET. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT NEAR
FREEZING...THIS COULD BE YET ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
FOR RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. OUT OVER THE BERING THIS
TIME...ONE LOW FILLS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WHILE ANOTHER
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS NEW LOW DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MAYBE SOME MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS.

FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO 1ST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...MODELS ARE IN
ASTONISHINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHARP HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF AK. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF COAST. A
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF UNDER THE RIDGE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SO PLACES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE WARM AND WET...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AREAS LIKE GULKANA
AND PAXSON...UNDER THE HIGH...WILL BE CLEAR...COLD...AND DRY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANCHORAGE WILL BE CAUGHT RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO WITH JUST SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 120 130 131 132 137 138 139.
         GALE 125 127 136 140 141 150 155 160 177 181 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RSD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MSO