Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

942 
FZAK52 PAFC 011225
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020145-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 90 NM NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES INLAND
FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 961 MB EARLY WED.

$$

PKZ150-020145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020145-
BRISTOL BAY-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020145-
UNALASKA BAY-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-020145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

129 
FZAK52 PAFC 020003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021245-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 MB LOW 75 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 225 NM NORTH OF
KISKA WED MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 225 NM EAST OF SAND POINT AT 958 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021245-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021245-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 9
FT.
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-021245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8
FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE BROAD MULTI-CENTER LOW REMAINS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NORTH
AND INLAND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA. A VARIETY OF
SMALLER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATIONS...TROUGHS AND FRONTAL WAVES
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THE LARGER LOW. THE NORTHERN MOST
CIRCULATION IS UP NEAR 60N AND 180 WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN BRINGING WITH THEM AREAS OF MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY WRAP AROUND LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING RUNS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE BERING LOW
STRETCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING...ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE EAST
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH THE LOCATIONS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSITION OF THE LARGE SCALE LOW IN THE BERING AND THE RIDGE IN
GULF. HOWEVER...THEY ARE MORE CHALLENGED BY THE NUMBER AND
COMPLEXITY OF SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
ONE FEATURE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE FRONTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO
SPIN UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE NAM...EC AND CANADIAN
MODELS SPIN THIS UP INTO A CLOSED SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON IT VERY WELL. IMPLICATIONS TO THE
FORECAST INCLUDE A SLOWING OF THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD AS THE NEW LOW LIFTING NORTH UP THE FRONT.

THE NEXT POINT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH
OR SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY.
THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER DEVELOPING THE LOW INTO A CLOSED
SURFACE LOW WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT AN OPEN TROUGH. FURTHER
OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION OF THE NEXT BIGGER SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS TRENDING IT STRONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...INCREASED
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL
END THE FOG THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THAT SAID...THERE IS
STILL DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL (KNIK ARM SOURCE
REGION) THIS MORNING.

A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH MON. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER SHORT
WAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES (FRONTS/LOWS) TO PUSH FURTHER
NORTH...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS
THROUGH MON NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES NORTH INTO BRISTOL
BAY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BRING GALES TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND MON. MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON IN THE NORTHERN GULF MARINES MON
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF A NORTH MOVING FRONTAL WAVE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND TODAY...WITH SNOW OR MIX
REACHING THE SOUTHERN KENAI LATER THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS OF
THE KENAI WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN KENAI PEN GENERALLY SNOW. AREAS TO THE
LEE (WEST) OF THE CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL BE LARGELY ON THE
DRY SIDE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE (SE CROSS BARRIER FLOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT OVER THE
MAINLAND. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WIND TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WHILE WINDS WILL
SLACKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST AREAS ON THE DRY SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL SEE STEADIER RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES. UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE STEADIER RAIN AS WELL.
THIS AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE MARCHING NORTH IN THE PACIFIC ALONG THE
FRONT WILL GIVE THE BOUNDARY A NUDGE...SHIFTING INLAND BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN TO THE NORTH OF
DILLINGHAM AND WEST OF ILIAMNA. ONCE THE WINDS BEGIN TO WANE
OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING FOR INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN FROM RAIN TO SNOW. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FRONT IS
LARGER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE STALLING THE FRONT IN ONE
PLACE AND OTHERS SLOWLY MOVING IT EASTWARD. IF THE BAND SITS IN
ONE PLACE FOR TOO LONG...SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD PILE UP PRETTY
QUICKLY...HOWEVER THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE THE MAINLAND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DECREASING
CLOUDS/WINDS...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT WARM
SPELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE BERING AS A MATURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVERHEAD. VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE PROMOTING
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...WITH AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THIS AREA SHIFTS
TOWARD UNALASKA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ANOTHER STRONG LOW APPROACHES THE AKPEN AND KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY AND PUSHES A FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TRAIN OF SYSTEMS CONTINUES THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION-TYPE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS
FAR NORTH AS ANCHORAGE AT TIMES WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. WINDS TO GALE-FORCE AND PERHAPS TO STORM-FORCE WITH
POTENTIAL BARRIER JET FORMATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NORTH GULF
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130-132 136-139 150 155 160 175 177 179-181 185 351
         352 411-414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...CC