Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
323 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

This afternoon/evening the focus is west river as a weak wave across
western Wyoming provides the impetus for convection. A narrow tongue
of moisture on return flow will provide the CAPE, and with southeast
low level flow and westerly flow aloft shear is favorable for
supercell development. Westerly flow down to around 700mb also
supports the CAM solutions for evolution into some form of fast
moving/forward propagating MCS, which should track east/southeast
across the southern half of the CWA. The environment is much less
favorable to the northeast of the 1630Z SPC moderate risk area, with
significantly lower CAPE, though cant rule out some stronger
isolated convection for this area.

An upper trof will continue across the Dakotas into Thursday.
Overnight convection will have an impact on how far east the surface
front ends up before thunderstorm re-initialization can occur but
NAM/GFS support more storms for far eastern South Dakota into
western Minnesota. 0-6km shear of 30 to 50kts supports an additional
severe weather threat before storms move east of the CWA.  Aside
from some wrap around shower activity as the upper trof continues
east late Thursday the rest of the short term is expected to be dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

A number of shortwaves will move through the upper ridge this
weekend as lee side troughing sets up. Models differ significantly
on moisture availability with these shortwaves with the ECMWF
keeping the region dry while the GFS develops showers and
thunderstorms Sat evening through Sunday night. Stuck with
Superblend which is more reflective of the wetter GFS solution.

Models come into better agreement late Monday with pops when an
upper low and the sfc cold front track into eastern SD. The ECMWF
exits the upper low more quickly than the GFS which is more in line
with Superblend temps which don't fall off through the week. High
will be in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through Thursday
morning. However thunderstorms will be possible near KPIR this
evening so vsby may fall in moderate rain. Other sites will see some
brief showers through tonight. Brief fog may develop toward morning,
but too difficult to pinpoint at this time for tafs.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
217 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

SDZ015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051-071930-
DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-
SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
217 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 /117 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 14. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG-LIVED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-021-071930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-GRANT-
217 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 /117 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 14. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
458 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             2 SSW ARTICHOKE         45.37N 96.17W
07/05/2016  E2.00 INCH       BIG STONE          MN   PUBLIC

            RADAR ESTIMATED TIME. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

RL