Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
335 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

An area of low pressure will remain just west of the CWA
tonight into the day Tuesday before pushing across and east of the
area Tuesday night. This boundary looks to be the focus for shower
and thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening...with
anything that develops pushing east into an area of higher
instability. Best forcing looks to remain north of the CWA
however...and the southern CWA will be slightly capped...so expect
any activity to remain across the northern CWA. Additional
development across western South Dakota later tonight will spread
eastward and affect portions of the CWA late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Instability increases significantly across the far eastern
CWA Tuesday afternoon when the boundary begins to approach that
area. High res models had been hinting at convection
redeveloping...but have since backed off quite a bit...likely due to
a slightly increasing cap and stronger shear lagging behind the
boundary. Lowered pops some...but kept a chc mention going Tuesday
afternoon. Another low pressure system will track over the central
plains Wednesday...bringing another chance for precipitation. Models
indicating a more widespread rainfall with this system...with
current indications of one half inch or more possible across much of
the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Will see fairly warm temperatures again on Tuesday...with highs in
the mid 80s to mid 90s. Slightly cooler air returns behind the
system...with highs in the 80s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

On Thursday, models are in agreement in showing shortwave energy
tracking across the area with an inverted surface trough set up over
the eastern CWA. What they do not agree with is the strength of the
upper level trough. GFS is much deeper/stronger with the 500mb wave
than other models. Regardless, all models are in agreement with
showing precip over the eastern CWA on Thursday, so the inherited
SuperBlend pop grids look good for the time being. Pops a bit more
in question Thursday night into Friday and it is possible we are
hanging on to things too long, but it will depend on the strength of
the wave. Towards the end of the period, things heat up again along
with increasing humidity as upper level ridging builds across the
region. On and off chances for storms look to return as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

MVFR CIGs have moved out of KATY, and now expect conditions to
remain VFR there, as well as the rest of the TAF sites through the
afternoon and overnight hours. There is a small chance for a few
isolated TSRA across the region late this afternoon and into the
evening. Areal coverage is expected to remain low, so insertion of
VCSH/VCTS into TAFs is even questionable at this point. Will
continue to monitor trends and add mention for VCSH/VCTS if
needed.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-051200-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
315 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 /215 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KF