Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. With a developing
moderate jet across central SD, some severe storms have already
formed this evening. Large hail and strong winds will be the main
threats. Current forecast pops cover the storm potential well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

A surface high pressure is shifting east of the region this
afternoon with return flow developing west river. While surface
moisture within the return flow is unimpressive, moisture is
increasing at 850 mb. The moisture, along with a weak upper level
shortwave currently over Montana, will contribute to convection near
the Black Hills this afternoon. As the shortwave progresses eastward
tonight, showers and thunderstorms should move across this CWA. Some
thunderstorms in south central SD later this evening could become
strong with small hail and gusty winds possible. Based on a slow
storm motion, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Instability diminishes east of the Missouri River with strong storms
unlikely.

The threat for strong to severe storms on Monday is a little more
unclear. A shortwave will be located over the Northern Plains with
surface low over central SD. Warm, moist air looks possible ahead of
a low pressure system with MU-CAPE values around 2K J/KG.
Depending on which model used, 0-6 KM bulk shear values should
average between 25 to 35 knots. This setup should be efficient
enough for iso/sct severe storms. However moisture return is
questionable, as the the position of the surface low. The surface
low and upper level shortwave will progress east of the region on
Tuesday with conditions drying out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The medium range forecast models are coming into better agreement
regarding the upcoming pattern change that will occur on Thursday
night. Very warm/hot temps with dewpoints in the 60s will occur on
Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Thursday and Thursday night as a strong trough of low pressure
brings a potent cold front to the region. The best chances for
storms appear to be Thursday evening. After the front moves through,
temps will see a considerable cooldown with highs only the low to
mid 70s by Saturday and Sunday. Chances of thunderstorms will
decrease fairly quickly as the front moves through Friday morning,
leaving a cooler and mostly dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period except in the
vicinity of thunderstorms. An area of storms has developed across
western SD and is moving into central SD this evening. Some of
these storms may be severe and could impact KMBG or KPIR by 2z.
The storms will continue to move east overnight and through the
early morning hours, though severe potential is expected to
diminish in the east.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 /331 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SD AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION MONDAY COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDZ003-142245-
CORSON SD-
405 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CORSON COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

AT 404 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF SHAMBO RANCH...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEMMON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL CORSON
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4575 10200 4584 10186 4564 10169 4552 10196
      4556 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 229DEG 12KT 4564 10192

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
603 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             SHAMBO RANCH            45.53N 101.83W
08/14/2016  E2.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            QUE BALL AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

KG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
543 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDZ015-150030-
DEWEY SD-
543 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEWEY COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

AT 542 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ISABEL...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF LANTRY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANTRY...ISABEL...FIRESTEEL...GREEN GRASS...
BEAR CREEK AND LITTLE MOREAU REC AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4504 10148 4538 10149 4539 10147 4547 10147
      4536 10088 4499 10132 4500 10150 4503 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 293DEG 19KT 4531 10139

LUECK