Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Aberdeen, SD

357 
WWUS53 KABR 142302
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
502 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDC031-142312-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-160814T2300Z/
CORSON SD-
502 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CORSON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4557 10200 4570 10191 4562 10154 4547 10162
      4547 10198 4548 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 297DEG 15KT 4557 10184 

$$

WISE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

A surface high pressure is shifting east of the region this
afternoon with return flow developing west river. While surface
moisture within the return flow is unimpressive, moisture is
increasing at 850 mb. The moisture, along with a weak upper level
shortwave currently over Montana, will contribute to convection near
the Black Hills this afternoon. As the shortwave progresses eastward
tonight, showers and thunderstorms should move across this CWA. Some
thunderstorms in south central SD later this evening could become
strong with small hail and gusty winds possible. Based on a slow
storm motion, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Instability diminishes east of the Missouri River with strong storms
unlikely.

The threat for strong to severe storms on Monday is a little more
unclear. A shortwave will be located over the Northern Plains with
surface low over central SD. Warm, moist air looks possible ahead of
a low pressure system with MU-CAPE values around 2K J/KG.
Depending on which model used, 0-6 KM bulk shear values should
average between 25 to 35 knots. This setup should be efficient
enough for iso/sct severe storms. However moisture return is
questionable, as the the position of the surface low. The surface
low and upper level shortwave will progress east of the region on
Tuesday with conditions drying out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The medium range forecast models are coming into better agreement
regarding the upcoming pattern change that will occur on Thursday
night. Very warm/hot temps with dewpoints in the 60s will occur on
Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Thursday and Thursday night as a strong trough of low pressure
brings a potent cold front to the region. The best chances for
storms appear to be Thursday evening. After the front moves through,
temps will see a considerable cooldown with highs only the low to
mid 70s by Saturday and Sunday. Chances of thunderstorms will
decrease fairly quickly as the front moves through Friday morning,
leaving a cooler and mostly dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

VFR flight conditions will prevail this afternoon and overnight. A
few thunderstorms will form west of the Missouri River later this
evening and migrate east overnight. KPIR and KMBG will the best
chances for any thunderstorms.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Scarlett

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 /331 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SD AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION MONDAY COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDZ003-142245-
CORSON SD-
405 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CORSON COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

AT 404 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF SHAMBO RANCH...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEMMON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL CORSON
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4575 10200 4584 10186 4564 10169 4552 10196
      4556 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 229DEG 12KT 4564 10192

WISE