Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

The first round of convection quickly getting going on the WAA along
the ND/SD border has mainly stayed to the north, and been limited
across SD through 1945Z. Will continue to monitor as several
boundaries are now set up across the CWA. This primes us for later
this afternoon. Continue to have Severe Thunderstorm watch 439 in
effect until 8pm CDT this evening. Starting to see more cells
rapidly pop up east of ABR just before 20Z as the heat index values
rise above 100 across much of the area, with the dewpoint already up
to 75 at ABR. Small scale models have been of little help this
afternoon. The HiRes-ARW was one of the most promising solutions,
but had a bowing feature over northeastern SD at this time. Will
continue to monitor the current trends.

The second round of convection should be centered closer to the sfc
low southwest of PIR. Timing is still a concern with the evening
convection, but wind and hail look to be the main threats. Much of
the area also remains in the 5% tornado area, or probability of a
tornado within 25 miles of a point. Good shear and an intensifying
LLJ will be the story tonight. DCAPE values will be over 1000j/kg.
Am also concerned about the heavy rain potential with any stronger
storms as PW values are closer to 2-2.25in along northern SD and
eastern SD/west central MN through around 09Z. Consensus is to have
the thunderstorm activity restricted to the eastern third of the CWA
after 06Z Thursday, as the low slow moving sfc low slides to our
southeast counties by daybreak Thursday. Still have slow chance pops
going through the day over eastern SD and west central MN, but
severe potential will be off to our southeast during the day
Thursday.

Otherwise through Friday night, the trend will be slowly increasing
pressure with temperatures returning to near normal values Thursday
and Friday afternoon on northerly winds on the back side of the low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

An upper trough will finish exiting to the northeast on Saturday. A
broad ridge will build in for the start of next week. However, by
Monday night weak sfc low pressure and a few weak shortwaves will
traverse the Dakotas. At the moment, the energy does not seem
sufficient to overcome drier air near the sfc so pops remain low in
the forecast. Cannot completely rule out a shower or two Mon through
Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s
under the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

An area of low pressure will be affecting the region today and
tonight. There will be two rounds of storms. The first round
associated with a warm front will mainly affect KABR and possibly
KATY this afternoon. The second round will begin this evening as
the cold front sweeps through and will impact all sites from west
to east between 23z and 12z. VFR conditions are expected at all
sites with the exception of KATY which is struggling to clear out
some patchy stratus. VSBY and cigs may fall to MVFR/IFR in
stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ006-010-
     016>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-110915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
410 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 /310 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TODAY...DRAWING A SECOND
SURGE OF HOT AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH OUR HUMID
CONDITIONS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 105
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING WE WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. STORMS WILL PROCEED TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. CANT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
457 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             5 WSW WAUBAY WILDLIFE R 45.40N 97.43W
08/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       DAY                SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

NWS ABERDEEN SD
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
501 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W LANGFORD            45.59N 97.96W
08/10/2016  M66 MPH          DAY                SD   MESONET

            .

&&

NWS ABERDEEN SD
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
504 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W WAUBAY              45.34N 97.35W
08/10/2016  E60 MPH          DAY                SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

KG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
515 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

SDZ004-005-009-010-102300-
CAMPBELL SD-EDMUNDS SD-MCPHERSON SD-WALWORTH SD-
515 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON...EASTERN
CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN EDMUNDS AND EASTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUREKA...SELBY...JAVA AND LAKE HIDDENWOOD REC AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4532 9989 4544 10017 4589 9987 4577 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 207DEG 36KT 4548 9997

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
524 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             WEBSTER                 45.34N 97.52W
08/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       DAY                SD   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SRF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
544 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

SDZ045-102330-
JONES SD-
544 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JONES COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 544 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MURDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4386 10074 4393 10093 4413 10086 4404 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 204DEG 12KT 4397 10080

WISE