Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

A few storms have developed this evening over north central sd
with many more moving in from northwest sd. Still expect good
coverage of storms through the night along with severe weather
possible. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

Adjusted pops and added severe mention through the night across
the cwa.

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

The unsettled pattern will continue across the area for the next
couple of days. A warm front will be the focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity tonight, with storms expected to develop west
of the CWA by early evening, then spread eastward through the
overnight hours. Deep and low level shear are fairly impressive
along and north of the front, and in association with a 35 to 45
knot low level jet and cape values between 1500-2500 j/kg, should be
enough to result in some of the storms becoming severe, with gusty
winds and large hail being the main threats. The precipitation will
push out of the region early Wednesday morning, then look for
conditions to reset during the day before a cold front approaches
and becomes the focus for thunderstorm development again Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Deep layer and low level shear are not
as impressive during this time, nor are most unstable cape values.
There will still be a decent low level jet in place, and in
conjunction with the cold front moving through, cannot rule out
another chance for severe weather. Conditions finally begin to quiet
down Thursday night as high pressure moves in behind the exiting
storm system.

Strong WAA will be in place on Wednesday, with highs mainly in the
90s, with a few low 100s possible. Abundant moisture (dewpoints in
the upper 60s to mid 70s) will result in muggy conditions, with
portions of the CWA likely seeing heat indices above 100 degrees.
Therefore, have issued a heat advisory for the part of the CWA where
that is most likely to happen. Slightly cooler air moves back in on
Thursday with highs back down in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

The 500MB weather map will look like this to start out 12Z
Friday, a high amplitude ridge will be across the west coast up
through British Columbia and a trough will still be across much of
the rest of the nation. The main low will be across southern
Manitoba at 12Z Friday, and slowly shift east across Manitoba on on
Saturday. At the surface the cwa will be in between systems, with
the initial cold front well to our southeast, across southeastern
IA. 850MB temps will still be 16-20C with CAA on north-northwest
winds. 70s will return over eastern SD and west central MN Saturday
as the CAA continues and high pressure builds in at the surface.
Expect the surface high to be directly overhead from roughly 18Z
Saturday to 18Z Sunday.

The 500MB Pacific ridge will build in whole heartedly Sunday. At the
same time, the exiting sfc high will bring a slow return of
southerly winds during the day. The main result will be the slow
rise in temperatures for the start of the next work week, with highs
back above normal, into the mid 90s southwest to mid 80s northeast.
Low pressure over eastern MT and WY Monday afternoon will stretch
from southwestern SD to northeastern ND by daybreak Tuesday. The
main question limiting shower/thunderstorm potential will be limited
moisture during the day Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and move east
into the overnight hours as an upper level low pressure trough
interacts with a surface frontal boundary extending across northern
SD. All terminals are expected to be affected at or in the vicinity
with thunder along with showers. These storms will move east
Wednesday morning with some redevelopment possible late Wednesday
afternoon. Vfr conditions are expected overall, except for with the
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     Wednesday for SDZ006-010-016>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Mohr

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-100900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 /300 AM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE REGION
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 212 AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WE HAVE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE FOCUS AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO HURON AND WATERTOWN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING FOR COUNTIES ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

CONNELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

SDZ003-004-100300-
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-
935 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL AND EASTERN
CORSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/...

AT 935 PM CDT/835 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR POLLOCK...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOBRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERREID AND POLLOCK.

LAT...LON 4594 9992 4575 10016 4580 10040 4594 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 212DEG 22KT 4584 10022

LUECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
955 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     HAIL             5 SSE POLLOCK           45.84N 100.24W
08/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       CAMPBELL           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

DM