Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
956 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Storms moving across the region through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

The potential for severe storms from now through 9Z will be the main
forecast challenge. Currently, a fairly impressive upper level jet
streak is moving across the region. This jet, combined with a
shortwave over North Dakota is producing convection along Highway
212 in central SD. These storms have been marginally severe at times
with gusty winds and small hail possible. These storms should
progress eastward through late this afternoon, possibly becoming
stronger. Additional storms have been ongoing all day over western
North Dakota. Several CAMS suggest these storms will eventually
track southeastward across northeast SD and western MN later
tonight. Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms.

There is the potential for additional thunderstorms between 3-9Z
south of Highway 212 or closer to Highway 14. Current water vapor
suggests a shortwave is currently crossing Wyoming. This shortwave
should reach SD after 0Z, which should initiate elevated
convection. DCAPE is fairly high, based on the NAM, which suggests
damaging winds.

The rest of the short term looks dry with seasonal temperatures
thanks to a surface high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

The extended is still looking warm, at least at the start, with
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. A ridge over the
region on Tuesday will build further on Wednesday. Tuesday and
Wednesday will also see good mixing at the sfc ahead of a sfc low
moving off the Rockies. For this reason, bumped temps up above
Superblend on Wednesday. The current forecast calls for temps 100 or
in the southwestern cwa near Pierre. It is possible areas as far
east as the James River could see temps soar to 100 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, decided to stick with slightly cooler temps in the 90s.
An upper low will be moving through North Dakota through the day.
This system, coupled with a sfc low over South Dakota that will keep
winds from mixing efficiently, could result in suppressed upper
level temps and clouds especially across the northern tier
counties of SD.

Temps will cool into the 80s to lower 90s for the end of the week as
the upper trough trails to the east. There is no definitive period
for tstorms. Best chances may come across eastern SD and west
central MN as the upper trough shifts east Thu night. Another weak
sfc low may bring additional chances across the I-90 corridor
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period except in or near
thunderstorms. The storm forecast is still uncertain at this time.
Only have a VCTS mention at KATY this evening for now. May need
to add a mention in at either KMBG or KABR by the 0z TAF issuance
for storms occurring between 0z and 9z.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
435 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-170945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
435 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /335 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH A RISK FOR HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONNELLY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1034 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     TSTM WND GST     POLLOCK                 45.90N 100.29W
07/16/2016  E70 MPH          CAMPBELL           SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1044 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N HERREID             45.87N 100.07W
07/16/2016  M65 MPH          CAMPBELL           SD   MESONET

            .

&&

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1105 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W ROSCOE              45.45N 99.37W
07/16/2016  M72 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED WITH HAND-HELD DEVICE.

&&

RV