Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Aberdeen, SD

522 
WWUS53 KABR 170301
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

SDC021-031-041-045-049-089-107-129-170330-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-160717T0330Z/
MCPHERSON SD-DEWEY SD-CAMPBELL SD-FAULK SD-EDMUNDS SD-CORSON SD-
POTTER SD-WALWORTH SD-
1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT/930 PM MDT/ FOR WESTERN MCPHERSON...NORTHEASTERN DEWEY...
CAMPBELL...WESTERN FAULK...WESTERN EDMUNDS...EASTERN CORSON...POTTER
AND WALWORTH COUNTIES...

AT 1001 PM CDT/901 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LOWRY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SELBY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOWDLE AROUND 1010 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9939 4496 9934 4500 10076 4594 10101
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 269DEG 73KT 4537 9992 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MOHR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
309 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

The potential for severe storms from now through 9Z will be the main
forecast challenge. Currently, a fairly impressive upper level jet
streak is moving across the region. This jet, combined with a
shortwave over North Dakota is producing convection along Highway
212 in central SD. These storms have been marginally severe at times
with gusty winds and small hail possible. These storms should
progress eastward through late this afternoon, possibly becoming
stronger. Additional storms have been ongoing all day over western
North Dakota. Several CAMS suggest these storms will eventually
track southeastward across northeast SD and western MN later
tonight. Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms.

There is the potential for additional thunderstorms between 3-9Z
south of Highway 212 or closer to Highway 14. Current water vapor
suggests a shortwave is currently crossing Wyoming. This shortwave
should reach SD after 0Z, which should initiate elevated
convection. DCAPE is fairly high, based on the NAM, which suggests
damaging winds.

The rest of the short term looks dry with seasonal temperatures
thanks to a surface high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

The extended is still looking warm, at least at the start, with
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. A ridge over the
region on Tuesday will build further on Wednesday. Tuesday and
Wednesday will also see good mixing at the sfc ahead of a sfc low
moving off the Rockies. For this reason, bumped temps up above
Superblend on Wednesday. The current forecast calls for temps 100 or
in the southwestern cwa near Pierre. It is possible areas as far
east as the James River could see temps soar to 100 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, decided to stick with slightly cooler temps in the 90s.
An upper low will be moving through North Dakota through the day.
This system, coupled with a sfc low over South Dakota that will keep
winds from mixing efficietly, could result in suppressed upper level
temps and clouds especially across the northern tier counties of SD.

Temps will cool into the 80s to lower 90s for the end of the week as
the upper trough trails to the east. There is no definitive period
for tstorms. Best chances may come across eastern SD and west
central MN as the upper trough shifts east Thu night. Another weak
sfc low may bring additional chances across the I-90 corridor
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period except in or near
thunderstorms. The storm forecast is still uncertain at this time.
Only have a VCTS mention at KATY this evening for now. May need
to add a mention in at either KMBG or KABR by the 0z TAF issuance
for storms occurring between 0z and 9z.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
435 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-170945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
435 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /335 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH A RISK FOR HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
931 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HAIL             FORT PIERRE             44.36N 100.38W
07/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            .

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             2 W LAKE NORDEN         44.58N 97.25W
07/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W TRAIL CITY          45.47N 100.81W
07/16/2016  M60 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

            .

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             2 W LAKE NORDEN         44.58N 97.25W
07/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY 45-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
945 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W TRAIL CITY          45.47N 100.81W
07/16/2016  M71 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

            .

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
948 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NE TRAIL CITY         45.54N 100.64W
07/16/2016  E60 MPH          CORSON             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

RV