Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather
for New Mexico through the weekend, keeping afternoon temperatures
in the mid 90's to low 100's. A weak front will continue to move
through the northeastern corner of the state this evening,
producing isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Enough
moisture will remain in place over the eastern half of the region
to keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast on Friday. On
Saturday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be
confined to the central mountain chain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the short term, a weak frontal boundary will continue to push
southward into the southeastern parts of the forecast area through
tonight. This is bringing enough moisture and instability to the
region to create conditions favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon over mainly the northeastern portion
of the state. Surface based CAPE values of almost 3000 J/kg and
0-6 km shear values of 40-50 kts are present over the above
mentioned area per the SPC Mesoanalysis this afternoon, thus cells
that do develop will be in a healthy environment for gusty winds
and large hail. Storms are expected to begin to diminish this
evening as the atmosphere stabilizes into the evening hours.

Friday, enough moisture will remain over the eastern half of the
state to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening hours. Instability parameters do not
look as large on Friday as this afternoon, but remain robust
enough to to support development. Additionally, some weak shortwave
energy aloft will rotate into the area to help with thunderstorm
development.

Through the weekend, precipitation chances will diminish as the
ridge will center itself over central New Mexico as it moves to a
position over the midwest through the middle of next week.
Saturday and Sunday, precipitation chances will be limited mainly
the central mountains before sliding to the southwest mountains by
Sunday. As the ridge slides eastward, some return moisture will
begin to move into the Desert Southwest with the focus mainly over
Arizona. This will allow for some moisture along the AZ/NM border
eastward to the central mountains, so scattered rain chances were
kept in the forecast through the forecast period.

Temperatures will begin to moderate slightly as the ridge begins
to move to the east. Temperatures will still remain in the mid to
upper 90s for most locations through middle of next week, which is
5 to 10 degrees above the normal for this time of year. -Fontenot

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Unusually hot, dry and unstable conditions to persist through the
weekend...

An exceptionally dry, hot and unstable air mass once again ravaging
central/western areas this afternoon. In addition to widespread
minimum RH values in the single digits,  Haines indices of 6+, or so-
called super Haines values, to remain in place through early
evening. These highly anomalous conditions for mid-July combined
with diurnally-driven 20-foot winds mostly in the 10-20 mph range
will be the main fire weather focus in very near-term.

Meanwhile, the other feature of interest is a relatively moist
backdoor frontal boundary that stretched from the east slopes of the
northern Sangre de Cristo range southward to near Santa Rosa and
Portales as of this writing. This boundary will continue to slowly
press south and westward and will provide a focus for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, into the first part of the
evening across northeast and east-central New Mexico. Although
fairly shallow with westward extent, we do anticipate at least a
modest easterly push into the Rio Grande Valley later tonight with a
significant jump in surface dew point temperatures as compared to
this morning that will provide better RH recovery for places like
Taos, Santa Fe and Albuquerque by daybreak Friday. Very good to
excellent RH recovery expected for areas east of the central
mountain chain.

A bit more convectively active for central/western areas on Friday
as the effects of tonight's easterly push manifests itself as
isolated dry thunderstorm/lighting from the Divide eastward to the
central mountain chain.  At the very least,  we anticipate more in
the way of cumulus cloud cover and some buildups over the higher
terrain with min RH values trending upward though still unusually
dry for the season. Unfortunately, with considerable dry air and
fairly warm temperatures aloft, thunderstorm development will
generally struggle except for the northeast and far east where
moisture more plentiful.

Going into the weekend, the upper level high will remain squarely
over New Mexico but we do see signs of a gradual shift toward the
east and north by Sunday.  Thus unusually hot, dry and unstable
conditions will persist with low chances of thunderstorms favoring
the Sangres on Saturday and the southwest on Sunday. The upper high
will continue to shift northeast and take up residence over the
southern plains early next week. Northward moisture transport in the
clockwise flow and chances for wetting rain will favor Arizona and
far western New Mexico next week.  But overall atmospheric content
/maximum temperatures/ will remain below /above/ average.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Surface frontal boundary stretching from the east slopes of the
northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains southeastward to the Caprock
south of KTCC at midday will continue to slowly press south and
west through tonight. Sharp E-W moisture gradient accompanying the
boundary along with NELY surface winds to around 20 kts. Forward
progress is a bit faster than previous model trends, but shallow
nature of the relatively cooler air mass will limit westward
extent of best moisture available for SHRA/TSRA that are forecast
to develop across northeast and far east-central NM this afternoon
into the evening. Storm motions here toward the southeast at
25-30kts. Wind shift impacting KLVS and KTCC initially, then
anticipate moderately strong easterly gap winds tonight for KABQ
and KSAF peaking between 03Z-11Z. Patches of MVFR cigs may develop
east of the central MT chain overnight but confidence too low to
include at KTCC or KLVS. Gusts associated with the east canyon/gap
wind with the front at KABQ may approach airport weather warning
criteria overnight. kj &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  45  90  45  90 /   0   0   5   5
Cuba............................  55  93  55  92 /   0   5   5   5
Gallup..........................  52  96  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  48  90  52  88 /   0   5   0   5
Grants..........................  53  94  56  93 /   0  10   5   5
Quemado.........................  58  91  58  89 /   0   5   5   5
Glenwood........................  66 101  66  99 /   5  10  10   5
Chama...........................  41  82  40  85 /   5  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  62  87  64  89 /   5  20   5  10
Pecos...........................  59  90  58  91 /  20  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  52  81  52  83 /  10  20  10  10
Red River.......................  43  76  49  77 /  20  30  20  20
Angel Fire......................  39  79  41  80 /  20  30  20  30
Taos............................  51  89  52  90 /  10  20  10  10
Mora............................  53  85  54  86 /  30  40  30  30
Espanola........................  61  95  62  96 /   5  10   5   5
Santa Fe........................  60  90  61  89 /  10  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  59  94  60  95 /   5  10   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  94  66  95 /   0  10   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  97  68  98 /   0  10   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  99  62 100 /   0   5   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  98  67  99 /   0   5   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  64  98  65  99 /   0   5   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  65  98  67  99 /   0   5   5   5
Socorro.........................  68 101  70 101 /   0   5   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  90  63  91 /   5  30  10  10
Tijeras.........................  62  93  63  96 /   5  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  95  59  96 /   5  30  20   5
Clines Corners..................  58  87  59  90 /   5  30  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  61  92  63  93 /   0  20  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  64  96  66  96 /   0  10  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  58  88  60  89 /  10  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  52  85  52  90 /  40  40  20  20
Raton...........................  53  88  53  92 /  30  30  20  20
Springer........................  55  91  56  94 /  30  30  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  53  88  55  91 /  20  40  30  30
Clayton.........................  60  89  62  96 /  30  30  20  10
Roy.............................  58  89  60  93 /  30  30  20  10
Conchas.........................  65  96  68  99 /  20  20  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  65  96  66  99 /   5  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  64 100  69 103 /  20  20  20   5
Clovis..........................  65  95  67  99 /  10  20  20   5
Portales........................  67  96  70 100 /  10  20  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65  97  68 100 /  10  20  20   5
Roswell.........................  70 102  70 104 /   5  20  20   5
Picacho.........................  65  94  65  96 /  10  30  20  20
Elk.............................  63  88  63  90 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ538.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following counties...Colfax and Union.

&&

54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

NMZ501>540-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
601 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS A FRONT WORKS INTO THE
STATE. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

FARTHER SOUTH HOT AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ
OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS
AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG
NMWX.

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
216 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

NMZ528-531-532-142045-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
216 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MORA AND WEST
CENTRAL HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 216 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF ROY...OR 20 MILES EAST OF WAGON MOUND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 10431 3595 10449 3607 10432 3588 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 319DEG 14KT 3596 10435

40

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

NMZ528-529-532-142145-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS-
316 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 316 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF MAES...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAGON MOUND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 10437 3572 10465 3588 10443 3584 10437
      3583 10438 3583 10437 3582 10438 3581 10436
      3581 10437 3578 10436 3578 10429 3567 10413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 319DEG 12KT 3572 10443

40