Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Albuquerque, NM

950 
WGUS75 KABQ 052154
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NMC031-043-052300-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160805T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCKINLEY-SANDOVAL-
354 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY AND WEST CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES...

AT 354 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
MCKINLEY AND WEST CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 10716 3538 10749 3540 10757 3575 10732

$$

40

587 
WGUS75 KABQ 052306
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
506 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NMC031-043-052315-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160805T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCKINLEY-SANDOVAL-
506 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
SANDOVAL COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 

LAT...LON 3572 10716 3538 10749 3540 10757 3575 10732

$$

40

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Moisture feed continuing across much of the fcst area but still
maximized from the sw mts to the n central mts and that is for
the most part where the more numerous distribution of showers
and storms will be this aftn and eve. It may disperse to some
degree from that area as the activity slowly diminishes after
roughly 03z. Once again mts will be occasionally obscured in
heavy rain shafts and even clouds. MVFR and more rarely IFR
conditions can also bee expected with the stronger storms. East
central and SE plains should generally see the least amount of
activity through the fcst period ending at 18z Sat. Lcl MVFR to
IFR cigs may develop from the east slopes of the central mt chain
westward during approx the 06z to 15Z Sat period.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet weather pattern will continue through the weekend and into
early next week, but with an uptrend in daytime temperatures as
the monsoon moisture plume is thinned out a bit. In the meantime,
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall today
and tonight with potential for flash flooding, especially across
western and northern portions of the state. Rain chances will
decrease some early next week, but ramp back up from mid to late
week as a robust monsoon moisture plume develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWATs have maxed-out below model forecasts from the past couple of
days, but are still well above normal across a majority of the
area. However, some drying noted in the latest water vapor
satellite imagery across southern New Mexico and the 00z KEPZ
sounding showed a PWAT of 1.01" which is down significantly from
the previous sounding PWAT of 1.44" at 12z. All of that said,
abundant atmospheric moisture remains in place for another round
of robust storms later today into tonight. Storms will be moving
n-ne at 15 to 20 mph, so the flash flood threat will be from
training cells vs. slow movement. Trimmed-back flash flood watch
to remove some eastern and southern zones where PoPs/QPF are lower
today/tonight. Kept the watch in place for the Albuquerque Metro
where a repeat performance is possible this evening.

PWATs are forecast to trend down over the weekend into early next
week and will coincide with a slight warming trend. That said,
PWATs will still be around or slightly above normal through the
weekend and an active storm pattern will continue despite the
upper high edging further west into southeast New Mexico. Further
drying on Monday and Tuesday, but then a moisture resurgence from
mid to late week as a west coast trough develops and moves inland.
The 00z ECMWF still redevelops Tropical Storm Earl in the eastern
Pacific and pulls it north up the Gulf of California, but then
deflects it east across northern Mexico with the aforementioned
trough progressing east across the Rockies. The 00z GFS is less
enthused and both models show dry westerlies across the northern
half of New Mexico by Friday. Will be interesting to see how this
plays-out, but there is at least some potential for a significant
monsoon burst with tropical moisture input next Wednesday or
Thursday.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet pattern continues across the western two thirds of the state
today. Hi-res models now picking up on two subtropical waves moving
up from the southwest and across NM Saturday/Saturday night and
again on Sunday. Scattered to numerous wet storms will result each
afternoon and evening, especially from the central mountain chain
westward. Very moist airmass will result in heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding today through Sunday.

Models continue to bring drier air into the northwest quarter of NM
Monday. Still plenty active elsewhere, especially along the moisture
gradient where the atmosphere will be the most buoyant. GFS and
ECMWF agree that Tuesday could be the least active day of the week
across the west and north. Low level moisture remains sufficient
enough elsewhere for scattered afternoon and evening coverage.

GFS and to a greater extent the ECMWF still bring up remnant
moisture from Tropical Storm Earl around midweek. Minor changes in
the speed of an incoming upper level trough could lead to big
changes in where this moisture actually ends up. We shall see.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ501>508-510>519-521-524-526-527.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
558 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
844 AM MDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW CARNUEL           35.13N 106.49W
08/04/2016                   BERNALILLO         NM   PUBLIC

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED IN GLENWOOD HILLS

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601348

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
203 PM MDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALMA                    33.38N 108.90W
08/04/2016                   CATRON             NM   BURN SCAR SPOTS

            HIGH WATER FORCED ROCKS MUD AND DEBRIS OVER CATWALK
            ROAD. MINERAL CREEK ROAD WASHED OUT NEAR ALMA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601349

GUYER