Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Albuquerque, NM

953 
WGUS75 KABQ 050358
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
958 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMC001-050445-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160805T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BERNALILLO-
958 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL BERNALILLO COUNTY...

AT 954 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALBUQUERQUE
WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...HOWEVER SOME AREAS HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALBUQUERQUE. ROADWAYS MAY BE FLOODED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE
THROUGH THESE FLOODWATERS. ADDITIONALLY....ARROYOS AND CHANNELS WILL
BE RUNNING HIGH AND FAST. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE AND CARNUEL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 10647 3502 10646 3502 10656 3517 10657

$$

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514 
WGUS75 KABQ 050441
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMC001-050449-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160805T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BERNALILLO-
1041 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BERNALILLO COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO POSE A THREAT. HOWEVER...ARROYOS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
AND FAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS MAY BE SLOW TO RECEDE AS WELL. 

LAT...LON 3517 10647 3502 10646 3502 10656 3517 10657

$$

34

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Weak upper low near four corners region will continue to move to
the northeast while upper high center remains over TX. Monsoon
moisture and most active convection situated over wrn and nrn NM.
Mts occasionally obscured in the stronger storms with brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys possible in heavy rain. Sfc boundary pushing southward
into ne NM at 23Z to reach a KCQC-KTCC line by 05/06Z. Resulting
upslope flow may produce areas of MVFR to IFR cigs KLVS-KRTN thru
05/14Z while local MVFR to IFR cigs and br possible along and west
of the contdvd. Aft 17Z convection to redevelop over the nrn and
wrn higher terrain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...349 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Ample monsoonal moisture surging northward along with the weak
upper low crossing the Four Corners into Central Colorado will
keep showers and thunderstorms around through this evening. Expect
locally heavy rainfall overnight with flash flooding possible across
much of central and western New Mexico. The wet period will
continue through the weekend with a down trend early next week,
with lesser afternoon storm chances. Another possible wet period
could redevelop the latter half of next week.

32

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, high pressure is hovering to our east while at the
same time a weak upper level low is crossing northeast across the
Four Corners Region into Central Colorado. With ample monsoonal
moisture seeping northward along with the weak upper low crossing
the Four Corners, showers and thunderstorms will continue
northward across much of the forecast area, with lesser activity
across the southeast plains. Storms will move a bit quicker than
previous days because of steadily increasing 700-500mb layer winds.
Although storms will be steady moving, heavy rain footprints will
be favorable across central and western areas. We will continue
the flash flood watch through late Friday but we added Union and
Harding counties today because of further convection developing
over the northeast with response to an approaching back door cold
front from the north. There could be a possibility that storms
across the northeast could become severe.

The wet period will continue into the weekend as moisture
continues surging northward with aid from high pressure to the
east and an upper level trough to our west. PWATS will start to
trend down a bit as drier mid level air begins to seep in from
the SE and the west. Although drier air will slowly filter into
the forecast area, afternoon storms will continue developing over
mountain tops and high terrain before seeping into the valleys.
The warming period will last til Thursday before models indicate a
return in monsoonal moisture by the latter half of next week,
brought on by possible remnant tropical activity.

32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A rich moisture environment continues across the northwest three
quarters or so of the forecast area as of mid afternoon and that
will change little through Fri then only dry out slightly over
the weekend. Heavy rain-producing storms and localized flash
flooding once again will be likely through Friday and perhaps
into the weekend as well. A weak upper low will slowly drift into
CO over the next 24 to 36 hours keeping north central and nw NM
in the most widespread rains. East central and se plains will
have the lowest chance of showers and storms, but even there a
few should develop. Areas of rain and at least a few storms
should linger the longest into the night across the nw third of
the state.

Pattern to be pretty similar again Fri, though the upper high to
the east of the state will begin to build a bit westward. With
storm steering flow more out of the sw and a little stronger,
a few stronger storms could develop across the northeast
highlands and plains. The high will likely build somewhat more to
the west into the state as the weekend progresses, narrowing and
lessening to a fair degree the southerly transport of monsoon
moisture. But we should retain plenty of residual moisture for
healthy crops of afternoon and evening showers and storms,
especially across the higher terrain and to a lesser degree the
lower terrain later in the day. All through this period very good
to excellent rh recoveries expected west, north and most of
central NM at least fair to good east central and se NM.

As a little more westerly component to the flow aloft develops
Mon, there should be some drying and lessening of convection
across the nw third to half of the state, but computer models
have been wavering somewhat in the most recent few runs with this
scenario, so just how much decrease we will see in a little
uncertain.  backing off somewhat at times from this scenario.
ECMWF and GFS models both want to increase moisture and rainfall
mid to late week, perhaps somewhat due to remnants of tropical
system Earl. Still a long way off so exact track of this moisture
is rather uncertain.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following zones...
NMZ501>531.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ501>540-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
552 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ON AND NEAR BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A FEW STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BETWEEN RATON AND CLAYTON NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
438 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ504-042315-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
438 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

AT 437 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTH OF SAN MATEO...OR 26 MILES EAST OF CROWNPOINT...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
MCKINLEY COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 10779 3560 10777 3563 10781 3576 10779
      3569 10748 3546 10762 3550 10771 3551 10771
      3554 10774 3557 10774 3556 10777 3557 10779
      3556 10781 3558 10782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 196DEG 10KT 3556 10770

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
512 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ503-504-042345-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
512 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 512 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF LINDRITH...OR 28 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUBA...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL RIO
ARRIBA COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 10706 3629 10727 3656 10741 3662 10708
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 166DEG 14KT 3639 10719

54