Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ

993 
WWUS55 KTWC 180042
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
542 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015

AZC019-180051-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150718T0045Z/
PIMA AZ-
542 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST...
                
THE STORMS NEAR THE TOWN OF SANTA CRUZ WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING 
HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3181 11241 3197 11251 3212 11228 3188 11214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 243DEG 8KT 3193 11239 

$$

MEYER

ZCZC PHXWRKAFD 172003
TTAA00 KPHX DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
125 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA.  SHORT BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  A
SLOW DRYING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAD DELAYED
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERTS OF
ARIZONA. A WEAK CIRCULATION FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
BRUSHING FAR SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WAS HELPING TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
COCHISE COUNTY. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FROM
TUCSON WESTARD HAD PROVIDED ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION SO FAR TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DELAYED SIGNIFICANTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...JUST ABOUT ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A TREND TOWARD A GRADUAL DAILY REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 8-15K FT AGL WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WHICH SAW SOME
CLEARING EARLIER. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS +SHRA/+TSRA TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIMA
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WHICH SAW SOME CLEARING EARLIER TODAY.
CIGS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TO 4-6K FT NEAR TSRA'S. SURFACE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY GUSTS
FROM TSRA'S. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE JUST A LITTLE BIT LESS ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU SATURDAY EVENING FOR
   ZONES AZZ501>509-511>515

&&

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