Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

420 
WGUS75 KTWC 180155
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
655 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015

AZC019-180300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-150718T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
655 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 649 PM MST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF SELLS. 
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND 
SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF SANTA CRUZ AND THE SAN SIMON WASH AREA. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... SANTA 
CRUZ...PISINIMO...PAPAGO FARMS...KUPK...COWLIC AND BIG FIELDS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...GU VO WASH... 
FRESNAL WASH...PISINIMO WASH...BIG WASH...SAN SIMON WASH... 
BABOQUIVARI WASH...MURK KUI WASH...SAN LUIS WASH...SELLS 
WASH...VAMORI WASH...HALI MURK WASH...AND TOPAWA WASH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11244 3210 11246 3189 11194 3159 11189

$$

MEYER

ZCZC PHXWRKAFD 172003
TTAA00 KPHX DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
125 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA.  SHORT BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  A
SLOW DRYING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAD DELAYED
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERTS OF
ARIZONA. A WEAK CIRCULATION FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
BRUSHING FAR SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WAS HELPING TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
COCHISE COUNTY. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FROM
TUCSON WESTARD HAD PROVIDED ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION SO FAR TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DELAYED SIGNIFICANTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...JUST ABOUT ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A TREND TOWARD A GRADUAL DAILY REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 8-15K FT AGL WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WHICH SAW SOME
CLEARING EARLIER. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS +SHRA/+TSRA TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIMA
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WHICH SAW SOME CLEARING EARLIER TODAY.
CIGS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TO 4-6K FT NEAR TSRA'S. SURFACE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY GUSTS
FROM TSRA'S. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE JUST A LITTLE BIT LESS ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU SATURDAY EVENING FOR
   ZONES AZZ501>509-511>515

&&

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