Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Tucson, AZ

832 
WWUS55 KTWC 162052
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
152 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

AZC019-162100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-151016T2100Z/
PIMA AZ-
152 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 148 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE STRONG TO A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE KITT PEAK AREA.

HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY RUNOFF IN THE AREA. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
KITT PEAK...SANTA ROSA...SANLUIS...NOLIC...AK CHIN...QUEENS 
WELL...SAN ISIDRO...PAN TAK...COMOBABI...SANTA ROSA RANCH...SIL 
NAGGIA AND BIG FIELDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 11156 3194 11186 3189 11208 3231 11216
      3232 11147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 179DEG 23KT 3204 11180 

$$

CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
OVER ARIZONA FOR THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WILL BE INTERESTING AS THE REMNANT
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  AS THIS LARGER SCALE FEATURE PASSES
BY...A FEW SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN THE SW FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  FOR TODAY
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF A VORT LOBE
ROTATING NE ACROSS AZ AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MIGRATED
WEST ACROSS THE AREA.  EXPECTING CONVECTION TO REALLY FIRE UP ACROSS
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR
ALOFT AND JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT D-CAPE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BAND SETS UP FOR THE EVENING AND BEGINS TO
STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT.  MAY END UP WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINS WITH THIS SETUP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
BE A LONGER DURATION...NOT AS INTENSE SCENARIO.

SATURDAY WE HAVE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
WHILE TIMING OF THIS MAY CHANGE A SOME...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  STILL
HAVE SOME SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CAPE SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
AND ALSO FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINERS THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS AREAS THAT
GET DECENT RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS NE OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL TAKE
THAT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AS THEY SAY ON
TV...BUT WAIT THERES MORE.  THE ATMOSPHERE IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BUILD A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THE LONG TERM /SEE 5-WAVE
HEIGHT FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10-DAYS/ IT DROPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND SWINGS A VORT LOBE UP ACROSS WESTERN AZ BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SE AZ SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE AREA FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD.

BEYOND THAT IT GETS REALLY INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN.  A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH MONDAY FORMING A SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH ON MONDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF SE AZ AND LIKELY EASTERN AREAS.  THIS LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS AZ THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE.  IF THIS INDEED PLAYS OUT
LIKE THIS WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.  HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT
THIS IDEA.

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD...AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WELL INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
THE EXPECTED WETTER THAN NORMAL WINTER MAY BE GETTING AN EARLY
START.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN 6-10KFT AGL WITH LYRS ABV THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD +TSRA DVLPG W-SW OF KTUS AND SPRDG TO ENE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN EWD INTO GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE COUNTIES AFT ABOUT 17/00Z
WITH SHRA CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF NIGHT EAST OF KTUS. LCL MVFR CONDS
VCNTY OF STRONG TSTORMS. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-SE 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. GUSTS ARND 45 KTS NR STRONG AFTN T-
STORMS. ADDL SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DVLP PRIMARILY AFTER 17/18Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE TUCSON AREA EASTWARD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND
HAIL.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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