Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Tucson, AZ

213 
WGUS75 KTWC 170031
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
531 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

AZC019-170130-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-151017T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
531 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 1.50 INCHES HAD
FALLEN ALONG AND NORTH OF ARIVACA ROAD BETWEEN HIGHWAY 286 AND
ARIVACA. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS WEAKENED OR TAPERED
OFF...SWIFT RUNNING RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LAS
GUIJAS WASH...ARROYO SECO...ARIVACA CREEK AND AMIGO WASH RESULTING
IN FLASH FLOODING.


LAT...LON 3172 11125 3159 11128 3154 11133 3163 11151
      3172 11149

$$

462 
WGUS75 KTWC 170133
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
633 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

AZC019-170141-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-151017T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
633 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 631 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED THE
BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED
BEYOND THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS
ENDED. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3172 11125 3159 11128 3154 11133 3163 11151
      3172 11149

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
OVER ARIZONA FOR THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WILL BE INTERESTING AS THE REMNANT
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  AS THIS LARGER SCALE FEATURE PASSES
BY...A FEW SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN THE SW FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  FOR TODAY
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF A VORT LOBE
ROTATING NE ACROSS AZ AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MIGRATED
WEST ACROSS THE AREA.  EXPECTING CONVECTION TO REALLY FIRE UP ACROSS
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR
ALOFT AND JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT D-CAPE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL.

TONIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BAND SETS UP FOR THE EVENING AND BEGINS TO
STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT.  MAY END UP WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINS WITH THIS SETUP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
BE A LONGER DURATION...NOT AS INTENSE SCENARIO.

SATURDAY WE HAVE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
WHILE TIMING OF THIS MAY CHANGE A SOME...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  STILL
HAVE SOME SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CAPE SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
AND ALSO FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINERS THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS AREAS THAT
GET DECENT RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS NE OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL TAKE
THAT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AS THEY SAY ON
TV...BUT WAIT THERES MORE.  THE ATMOSPHERE IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BUILD A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THE LONG TERM /SEE 5-WAVE
HEIGHT FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10-DAYS/ IT DROPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND SWINGS A VORT LOBE UP ACROSS WESTERN AZ BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SE AZ SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE AREA FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD.

BEYOND THAT IT GETS REALLY INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN.  A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH MONDAY FORMING A SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH ON MONDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF SE AZ AND LIKELY EASTERN AREAS.  THIS LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS AZ THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE.  IF THIS INDEED PLAYS OUT
LIKE THIS WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.  HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT
THIS IDEA.

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD...AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WELL INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
THE EXPECTED WETTER THAN NORMAL WINTER MAY BE GETTING AN EARLY
START.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN 6-10KFT AGL WITH LYRS ABV THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD +TSRA DVLPG W-SW OF KTUS AND SPRDG TO ENE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN EWD INTO GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE COUNTIES AFT ABOUT 17/00Z
WITH SHRA CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF NIGHT EAST OF KTUS. LCL MVFR CONDS
VCNTY OF STRONG TSTORMS. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-SE 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. GUSTS ARND 45 KTS NR STRONG AFTN T-
STORMS. ADDL SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DVLP PRIMARILY AFTER 17/18Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE TUCSON AREA EASTWARD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND
HAIL.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

AZZ503-504-162215-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
224 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MST...

AT 224 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ARIVACA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARIVACA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 11130 3159 11149 3181 11143 3176 11114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 210DEG 7KT 3166 11136

GL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
314 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

AZZ502-505-506-162345-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK AZ-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
314 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
MST...

AT 309 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN EASTWARD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR PICACHO PEAK AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN
PINAL COUNTY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING
POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
NEAR ONE MILE. MOTORISTS ON I-10 AND STATE ROUTE 79 SHOULD USE
CAUTION IF BLOWING DUST IS ENCOUNTERED. REMEMBER...PULL ASIDE...STAY
ALIVE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELOY...KEARNY...ORACLE...FRIENDLY CORNERS...WHITE HORSE PASS...
SADDLEBROOKE...PICACHO...ORACLE JUNCTION...KELVIN...RED ROCK...
BIOSPHERE 2 AND PICACHO PEAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BLOWING DUST CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...CAUSING ACCIDENTS THAT
MAY INVOLVE CHAIN COLLISIONS. IF DENSE DUST IS OBSERVED ACROSS A
ROADWAY...PULL YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE PAVEMENT AS FAR AS POSSIBLE TO
STOP. TURN OFF THE LIGHTS...SET THE EMERGENCY BRAKE...AND TAKE YOUR
FOOT OFF THE BRAKE PEDAL TO ENSURE TAIL LIGHTS ARE NOT ILLUMINATED.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 11099 3252 11070 3259 11076 3257 11076
      3253 11077 3254 11082 3252 11082 3251 11178
      3272 11178 3274 11174 3273 11167 3276 11161
      3283 11154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 261DEG 16KT 3264 11161

CARLAW