Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

746 
WGUS75 KTWC 152124
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015

AZC003-152230-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150715T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
224 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 220 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MULE MOUNTAINS AND OVER 
STATE HIGHWAY 92 EAST OF PALOMINAS. IN ADDITION...AN AUTOMATED RAIN 
GAUGE NEAR BISBEE REPORTED .55 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A 15-MINUTE 
PERIOD EARLIER FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. 

THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO 
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THE AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BISBEE...SIERRA VISTA SOUTHEAST...PALOMINAS...JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 80
AND 90 AND NACO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 11005 3165 10979 3134 10984 3134 11016

$$

CARLAW

248 
WGUS75 KTWC 152230
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015

AZC003-152240-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150715T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
330 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3165 11005 3165 10979 3134 10984 3134 11016

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
947 AM MST WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND WEST OF TUCSON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES. NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A ROUND OF MORNING RUSH HOUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ACTIVITY HAD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. A FEW SPOTS
IN TUCSON RECEIVED UP TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES FROM
AROUND TUCSON WESTWARD. THIS AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH THE METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKED ON TRACK...BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADJUST POP VALUES A BIT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER TSRA WILL PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35-45 KTS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO INCLUDE FIRE ZONE 150. A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH SHOULD OCCUR BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER EAST
TEXAS AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE DOLORES WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 130 MPH WAS CENTERED NEAR 18N/110W...OR ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY. MOISTURE PLUME AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR.

15/00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT INCREASING PRECIP WATER VALUES
TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS STARTING THUR NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS DEPICTED PWATS BY MIDDAY SAT
TO BE NEAR 1.90 INCHES ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO AROUND ONE INCH
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE VALUES ARE DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY VERSUS THE 14/00Z GFS.

THUS...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI-SAT. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SAT WILL LIKELY FAVOR WRN SECTIONS VERSUS ERN LOCALES. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD
TRANSLATE NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ADEQUATE FOR CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS AREA-WIDE SUN.

THEREAFTER...THE GFS DEPICTED A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TREND BY NEXT
TUE...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0.50 - 0.75
INCH. BELIEVE THIS DRYING TREND IS TOO AGGRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
OCCUR. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD BY TUE.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGS OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COOLING TREND IS ON TAP FRI-
SAT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS SUN ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEGS F
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1257 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015

AZZ503-507-513-152045-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
1257 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MST...

AT 1257 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PARKER CANYON LAKE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIERRA VISTA...SIERRA VISTA SOUTHEAST...CANELO...PARKER CANYON
LAKE...RAMSEY CANYON PRESERVE AND CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL.

LAT...LON 3134 11050 3151 11063 3165 11043 3134 11020
      3133 11022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 140DEG 2KT 3146 11046