Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Tucson, AZ

085 
WGUS75 KTWC 082043
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
143 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

AZC003-082145-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
143 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST FOR
EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 138 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS JUST IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN GAUGES 
NEAR RUCKER CANYON SINCE 1245 PM MST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHICH 
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3170 10945 3196 10940 3194 10918 3172 10919

$$

FRANCIS

193 
WGUS75 KTWC 082147
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

AZC003-082155-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
247 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING RUCKER 
CANYON...HAD MOVED EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

THUS...FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3170 10945 3196 10940 3194 10918 3172 10919

$$

FRANCIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REDUCTION OF  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MEANWHILE..A TROUGH RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. ARIZONA IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A LARGE SWATH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND CENTRAL UTAH.

THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PW OF 1.72 INCHES...A MU CAPE OF
AROUND 1300 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 4. THE SOUNDING IS
DRIER ABOVE ABOUT 575MB COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SOUNDING WAS DRYING OUT ABOVE AROUND 450MB. IN ADDITION...THE
STEERING WINDS TODAY WILL PUSH THE STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WHILE YESTERDAY THE STORM MOTION WAS TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING
MOST OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

U OF A 06Z WRF/NAM SHOWING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY
OCCURRING MAINLY BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE
WRF/GFS DID NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND SHOWS ACTIVITY MORE TO THE
WEST. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z RUNS SHOW. AT ANY
RATE...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS/FORECAST SHOW MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES TODAY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THIS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 79
DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 74 DEGS. THESE TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY WEST OF KTUS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 7-12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
APART FROM TSRA GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF TUCSON THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DRYING TREND IS ON TAP DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
TUCSON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE TAIL END OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST. THIS DRYING WILL RESULT IN LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE
BY TUESDAY. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL RESULT
IN A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE HIGH TO A
POSITION CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE NEXT WEEK FOR
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD AND PEAK
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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