Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Tucson, AZ

947 
WGUS75 KTWC 080658
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1158 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZC019-021-080845-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150808T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINAL AZ-PIMA AZ-
1158 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS...CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE 
ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. AT 1152 PM MST...RADAR INDICATED A 
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASA ADODES AREA OF TUCSON 
WHICH WILL CAUSE STREET FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG INA ROAD FROM LA 
CHOLLA TO 1ST AVE. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 11089 3249 11052 3225 11099 3257 11123

$$

563 
WGUS75 KTWC 080853
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
153 AM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

AZC019-021-080902-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150808T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINAL AZ-PIMA AZ-
153 AM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN
PIMA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND FLOWING WASHES 
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 

LAT...LON 3292 11089 3249 11052 3225 11099 3257 11123

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REDUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME MOSTLY FROM ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY EWD ACROSS SRN COCHISE
COUNTY TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PINAL
COUNTY. CLOUD TOPS WERE GENERALLY COOLING DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT ACROSS
WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 04Z WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE
NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 08/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.67 INCH...WITH MLCAPE OF 412 J/KG.

08/00Z NAM/GFS...08/03Z RAP13 AND 08/03Z HRRR DEPICT ONLY A VERY
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THESE MODELS FAVOR ERN PIMA
COUNTY...ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND WRN COCHISE COUNTY WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THUS...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/
SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY
AND THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY EAST
AND SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45
KTS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WEST OF KTUS.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 7-12K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS APART FROM TSRA GUSTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING TREND IS ON TAP DURING THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /206 PM MST/...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE GREAT BASIN. THE JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED STORMS INTO THE EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALL BE THREATS
WITH THE STORMS.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE LOW WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND
SW TEXAS...ENOUGH WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBOUNDS WESTWARD INTO NM AND CO.

MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT MONSOON SURGE
WILL BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SUPPRESSING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERING INTO LATE WEEK. ALONG WITH A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANTIN