Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

November 5, 2015Okfuskee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Nov 5, 2015, 2:05 PM CST for Okfuskee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 5, 2015, 2:05 PM CST (20:05 UTC)
Expired: Nov 5, 2015, 2:30 PM CST
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Okfuskee County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 541 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 553 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 261 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Nov 5, 10:33 AM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 10:33 AM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1033 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Rain showers with isolated thunderstorms expected to persist
across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas this morning.
Severe weather is not expected from this activity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms developing over central and southwest
Oklahoma will continue to track toward the northeast, initially
affecting northeast Oklahoma, and as the day progresses shift
southward as the upper level trough shifts eastward into the
area. A few severe storms are likely from this second area of
precipitation, with hail and damaging winds possible. Also, shear
is sufficient enough to trigger an isolated tornado or two. Heavy
rain will also become a threat where the showers and storms train
across southeast Oklahoma, where between 1-2 inches of rainfall
is possible.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level system moving into the rocky mountain region as of
early this morning. Deep moisture continues to stream out ahead of
this system...and most convection this morning should remain in
the warm conveyor belt extending through SE OK and into NC AR.
POPS will be tailored accordingly for the morning hours...with
lower chances across the far nw zones. Better forcing comes this
afternoon as the upper system and pacific front approach from the
west. Axis of heavier rainfall still expected across SE OK and WC
AR. Will not include any headlines with this forecast packages as
qpf amounts likely to remain below flash flood guidance
thresholds. Instability likely to be limited by areal coverage of
rain...however shear will remain sufficient to support a few
storms capable of producing severe wind gusts. System quickly
races off to the northeast as it enters the plains this
evening...and rain chances will quickly diminish from west to east
overnight. Cooler air behind pacific front moves in for
Friday...with stronger high pressure settling over the area
Saturday. Sfc high parked nearly overhead Saturday night and
Sunday morning...and guidance continues to trend towards colder
overnight temps suggesting freeze potential for parts of NE OK and
NW AR. Given various model solutions towards rain chances next
week near the end of this forecast cycle...will continue with low
POPS areawide for that time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  48  65  41 /  70  30   0  10
FSM   72  53  70  45 / 100  90  10  10
MLC   72  50  69  43 /  80  60   0  10
BVO   73  42  63  36 /  70  30   0  10
FYV   69  48  62  37 /  90  90   0  10
BYV   68  49  61  40 / 100  90  10  10
MKO   71  50  66  41 /  80  50   0  10
MIO   72  47  62  38 /  70  50   0  10
F10   72  51  65  43 /  70  30   0  10
HHW   72  53  71  48 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 5, 1:04 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061145-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
104 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINAL...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF THE
STORMS TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO. A LIMITED TORNADO
THREAT EXISTS ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
ALSO BECOME A CONCERN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

16

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 5, 12:29 PM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

OKZ056-051845-
NOWATA OK-
1229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NOWATA COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CST...

AT 1229 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO 3 MILES WEST
OF LENAPAH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SOUTH COFFEYVILLE...              LENAPAH...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3696 9541 3694 9543 3692 9543 3690 9546
      3673 9578 3697 9568 3700 9565 3700 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 225DEG 57KT 3696 9565 3685 9570

Special weather statement, Nov 5, 12:43 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

OKZ054-055-051915-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CST...

AT 1243 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARNSDALL TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALNUT CREEK
STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BARTLESVILLE...                   BARNSDALL...
RAMONA...                         OCHELATA...
AVANT...                          WOLCO...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3668 9581 3649 9583 3642 9596 3642 9600
      3640 9600 3626 9626 3660 9617 3681 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 230DEG 49KT 3657 9614 3637 9619

Special weather statement, Nov 5, 1:17 PM CST, 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

OKZ064>066-052000-
OKFUSKEE OK-CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-
117 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE...
NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CST...

AT 117 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEPEW TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PADEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BRISTOW...                        OKFUSKEE...
DEPEW...                          SLICK...
WELTY...                          MILFAY...
MASON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 196.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3581 9662 3588 9660 3591 9615 3551 9621
      3552 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 263DEG 29KT 3583 9655 3556 9663

Special weather statement, Nov 5, 1:30 PM CST, 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

OKZ056-057-052000-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
130 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NOWATA AND NORTHERN CRAIG
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CST...

AT 130 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EDNA TO 6 MILES EAST OF
DELAWARE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
WELCH...                          PYRAMID CORNERS...
HOLLOW...                         CENTRAILIA...
CENTRALIA...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3699 9504 3695 9502 3682 9508 3665 9560
      3700 9549 3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 244DEG 52KT 3698 9546 3675 9553

Special weather statement, Nov 5, 1:35 PM CST, 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
135 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

OKZ055-060-061-052000-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
135 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
CST...

AT 135 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
COLLINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
CLAREMORE...                      OWASSO...
SKIATOOK...                       COLLINSVILLE...
SPERRY...                         OOLOGAH...
TALALA...                         VERA...
TURLEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 251 AND 254.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3632 9551 3624 9595 3636 9600 3640 9600
      3657 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 244DEG 52KT 3635 9590

Special weather statement, Nov 5, 2:05 PM CST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
205 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

OKZ065-052030-
OKFUSKEE OK-
205 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CST...

AT 205 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
CROMWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OKEMAH...                         OKFUSKEE...
BOLEY...                          BEARDEN...
CASTLE...                         CLEARVIEW...
PHAROAH...                        MASON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND
230.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3564 9625 3564 9621 3560 9619 3556 9619
      3555 9616 3539 9609 3529 9633 3529 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3546 9654 3544 9657 3541 9654 3539 9654
      3540 9657 3543 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 237DEG 42KT 3540 9648

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 10:36 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	39 min
Nov 5, 10:54 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	36 min
Nov 5, 11:16 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	44 min
Nov 5, 11:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Washington	32 min
Nov 5, 11:45 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Washington	45 min
Nov 5, 12:08 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	52 min
Nov 5, 12:29 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	16 min
Nov 5, 12:43 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	32 min
Nov 5, 12:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington	38 min
Nov 5, 1:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	43 min
Nov 5, 1:30 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	30 min
Nov 5, 1:35 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	25 min
Nov 5, 2:09 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	21 min
Nov 5, 2:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	25 min
Nov 5, 2:28 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee	32 min
Nov 5, 2:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa and 1 more	36 min
Nov 5, 2:44 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	31 min
Nov 5, 2:59 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	18 min
Nov 5, 3:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pittsburg	54 min
Nov 5, 3:18 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	27 min
Nov 5, 3:36 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	24 min
Nov 5, 3:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah	48 min
Nov 5, 3:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes	23 min
Nov 5, 4:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee, Pittsburg	31 min
Nov 5, 4:18 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	42 min
Nov 5, 4:21 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	24 min
Nov 5, 4:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	25 min
Nov 5, 4:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	35 min
Nov 5, 4:46 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Sequoyah	29 min
Nov 5, 4:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg and 2 more	34 min
Nov 5, 5:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Pushmataha, Sequoyah	47 min
Nov 5, 5:50 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	40 min
Nov 5, 4:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	36 min
Nov 5, 5:10 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	35 min
Nov 5, 5:37 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll, Madison	38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.