Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 25, 2015Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 25, 2015, 7:47 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 28 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2015, 7:47 PM CDT (00:47 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2015, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 25, 7:50 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Green Forest, AR	FEW TREES DOWN.
Mar 25, 7:50 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Green Forest, AR	NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN NEAR GREEN FOREST
Mar 25, 8:25 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Metalton, AR

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 3 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 25, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 354 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 222 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

196 
WUUS54 KTSA 260047
SVRTSA
ARC015-260115-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0037.150326T0047Z-150326T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 745 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RULE...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...CONNOR...GREEN FOREST...
  COIN...CARROLLTON AND DENVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 9359 3639 9368 3650 9329 3647 9328
      3622 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 263DEG 38KT 3630 9346

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

1 follow-up statement

612 
WWUS54 KTSA 260112
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARC015-260122-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150326T0115Z/
CARROLL AR-
812 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3620 9359 3639 9368 3650 9329 3647 9328
      3622 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 263DEG 38KT 3633 9313

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 25, 6:47 PM CDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 6:47 PM CDT, 1 hour before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CONVECTION. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOME WHILE SKIES CLEAR
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. MODEL
AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
AS DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THEN TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS
AND THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL STONES OVER 2 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALLOWING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44
AND INTERSTATE 40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTING NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR AT TIMES...MAINLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...COMPLETELY EXITING THE AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  60  39  59 /  80  10  10   0
FSM   50  63  40  62 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   46  60  39  61 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   41  58  35  57 /  70  10  10   0
FYV   43  53  34  54 /  90  20  10  10
BYV   42  53  34  52 /  90  30  20  10
MKO   45  59  38  59 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   41  55  35  53 /  90  10  20  10
F10   45  59  39  59 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   50  63  40  66 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 4:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 6:58 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
658 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
03/25/2015  E1.25 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            21ST AND YALE.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 7:08 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             ROGERS                  36.33N 94.12W
03/25/2015  E2.50 INCH       BENTON             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AT ROCKY BRANCH.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 7:10 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
710 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             2 SE SAND SPRINGS       36.12N 96.08W
03/25/2015  E1.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT BERRYVILLE.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 7:29 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
729 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TORNADO          1 N PEGGS               36.10N 95.10W
03/25/2015                   CHEROKEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FENCES BLOWN DOWN

&&

RJS

Special weather statement, Mar 25, 7:35 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-260115-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
735 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON...CARROLL...NORTHERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 734 PM CDT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER
BENTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3616 9332 3613 9453 3650 9462 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 267DEG 39KT 3639 9404

Local storm report, Mar 25, 7:43 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
743 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
03/25/2015                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AT 15TH AND LOUISVILLE.

0725 PM     HAIL             LOCUST GROVE            36.20N 95.17W
03/25/2015  E1.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 7:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton, Carroll	40 min
Mar 25, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	50 min
Mar 25, 7:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	32 min
Mar 25, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	38 min
Mar 25, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Madison, Washington	52 min
Mar 25, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	42 min
Mar 25, 9:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	56 min
Mar 25, 9:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	4 hr
Mar 25, 9:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	28 min
Mar 25, 9:49 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Washington	116 min
Mar 25, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	52 min
Mar 25, 10:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	35 min
Mar 25, 10:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Carroll	4 hr
Mar 25, 11:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	44 min
Mar 26, 2:29 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Carroll	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.