Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 25, 2015Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood warning at Mar 25, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT for Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT (02:30 UTC)
Expired: Mar 26, 2015, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 357 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1928 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1591 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 294 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.1
Supercell composite: 16.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

967 
WGUS54 KTSA 260230
FFWTSA
ARC015-087-260630-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.W.0006.150326T0230Z-150326T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
930 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 930 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 2 
  INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
  POSSIBLE.
  
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...CLIFTY...FORUM...HINDSVILLE...MARBLE...OSAGE...RUDD...
  RULE AND WITHROW SPRINGS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9330 3612 9347 3611 9347 3612 9391
      3620 9391 3623 9389 3624 9387 3631 9387
      3631 9382 3632 9383 3632 9329 3612 9329

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 25, 8:44 PM CDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 8:44 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NOW NEAR A KFYV TO KSNL LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS AND RAIN CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

HAVE TRIMMED SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AND MAY CLEAR SOME
MORE COUNTIES BEFORE THE WATCH EXPIRES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...10

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 4:55 PM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
823 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             SILOAM SPRINGS          36.19N 94.54W
03/25/2015  E1.25 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:45 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCUST GROVE            36.20N 95.17W
03/25/2015                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO POWER POLES AND SOME TREES DOWN.

0825 PM     HAIL             SILOAM SPRINGS          36.19N 94.54W
03/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

0825 PM     HAIL             TONTITOWN               36.18N 94.23W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Special weather statement, Mar 25, 8:47 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OKZ066>068-070>072-260230-
CHEROKEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WAGONER
OK-
847 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE AND NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN WAGONER

AT 847 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TULLAHASSEE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HOFFMAN...MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3599 9568 3607 9480 3533 9526 3532 9538
      3533 9540 3531 9542 3524 9592 3537 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 265DEG 47KT 3584 9541 3540 9583

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:49 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             WATTS                   36.11N 94.57W
03/25/2015  E2.50 INCH       ADAIR              OK   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:56 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TORNADO          4 W SAND SPRINGS        36.14N 96.18W
03/25/2015                   TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            *** 1 FATAL *** EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR
            HIGHWAY 51 AND 145 WEST AVENUE.

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 9:06 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STIDHAM                 35.37N 95.70W
03/25/2015                   MCINTOSH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0850 PM     HAIL             GREENLAND               35.99N 94.18W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 7:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton, Carroll	40 min
Mar 25, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	28 min
Mar 25, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	50 min
Mar 25, 7:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	32 min
Mar 25, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	38 min
Mar 25, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Madison, Washington	52 min
Mar 25, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	42 min
Mar 25, 9:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	56 min
Mar 25, 9:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	28 min
Mar 25, 9:49 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Washington	116 min
Mar 25, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	52 min
Mar 25, 10:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	35 min
Mar 25, 10:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Carroll	4 hr
Mar 25, 11:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	44 min
Mar 26, 2:29 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Carroll	4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.