River Flood Warning 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

982 
WGUS84 KTSA 260127
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
827 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Illinois River near Watts affecting Adair County. 
  
  Illinois River near Tahlequah affecting Cherokee County. 
  
OKC001-260927-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0002.150326T1419Z-150327T1742Z/
/WTTO2.1.ER.150326T1419Z.150327T0000Z.150327T1142Z.NO/
827 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Illinois River near Watts.
* from Thursday morning to Friday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday, the stage was  3.75 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Watts is expected to rise above 
  flood stage late Thursday morning and continue to rise to near 16.9
  feet by Thursday evening. The river is expected to fall below flood
  stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, moderate flooding occurs from the Arkansas 
  border to Chewey Bridge. Farmlands and permanent campgrounds are 
  affected. A few cabins in the Fidlers Bend area may have minor 
  flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3619 9478 3611 9478 3607 9453 3615 9453

$$

OKC021-260927-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.150327T0508Z-150328T2334Z/
/TALO2.1.ER.150327T0508Z.150328T0000Z.150328T1734Z.NO/
827 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Illinois River near Tahlequah.
* from late Thursday night to Saturday evening, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday, the stage was  6.40 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Tahlequah is expected to rise 
  above flood stage Friday before dawn  and continue to rise to near 
  13.9 feet by Friday evening. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, moderate flooding occurs from Chewey Bridge 
  downstream towards Tahlequah. Access roads east of the Combs Bridge
  near Eagles Bluff will be impassable. Extreme turbulence makes the 
  river too hazardous for floating.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3604 9498 3573 9498 3573 9487 3617 9472 3617 9485

$$

631 
WGUS84 KTSA 260719
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
219 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Illinois River near Watts affecting Adair County. 
  
  Illinois River near Tahlequah affecting Cherokee County. 
  
OKC001-260749-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150327T1742Z/
/WTTO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
219 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Illinois River near Watts.
* At  1:00 AM Thursday, the stage was  3.85 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Watts will crest below flood 
  stage at 8.2 feet Friday before dawn.


$$

OKC021-260749-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150328T2334Z/
/TALO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
219 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Illinois River near Tahlequah.
* At  1:00 AM Thursday, the stage was  6.46 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Tahlequah will crest below flood
  stage at 9.1 feet Saturday before dawn .
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, no flooding occurs but all recreational 
  floating along the Illinois River ceases at and above 9.5 feet.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3604 9498 3573 9498 3573 9487 3617 9472 3617 9485

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT
KBVO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SITES LATE TONIGHT...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. LOW
CLOUDINESS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP AND WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE FORECAST VALUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY 4-5 PM NEAR AND
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS...WITH A
TRANSITION TOWARDS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND STORMS BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON
POPS...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE INTIIAL
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.