Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 25, 2015Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood warning at Mar 25, 2015, 5:28 PM CDT for Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2015, 5:28 PM CDT (22:28 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2015, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 25, 5:45 PM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	Cleveland, OK	WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING. SEVERAL RURAL ROADS FLOODED SOUTHWEST OF TOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 17 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1301 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -224 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 889 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 324 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

527 
WGUS54 KTSA 252228
FFWTSA
OKC113-117-260130-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.W.0001.150325T2228Z-150326T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ENDING OVER THE WARNED AREA.  
  1 TO 3 RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  BLACKBURN...CLEVELAND...HALLETT...HOMINY...JENNINGS...MARAMEC AND
  OSAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 9650 3641 9626 3616 9653 3616 9663
      3626 9681

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 25, 3:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 3:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. MODEL
AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
AS DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THEN TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS
AND THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL STONES OVER 2 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALLOWING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44
AND INTERSTATE 40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTING NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR AT TIMES...MAINLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...COMPLETELY EXITING THE AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  60  39  59 /  80  10  10   0
FSM   50  63  40  62 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   46  60  39  61 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   41  58  35  57 /  70  10  10   0
FYV   43  53  34  54 /  90  20  10  10
BYV   42  53  34  52 /  90  30  20  10
MKO   45  59  38  59 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   41  55  35  53 /  90  10  20  10
F10   45  59  39  59 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   50  63  40  66 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 4:55 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:51 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             6 SW TULSA              36.07N 96.00W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

&&

PBS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:00 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LOWELL              36.23N 94.13W
03/25/2015                   BENTON             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED AT BETHEL HEIGHTS.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:10 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             1 E ELM SPRINGS         36.21N 94.22W
03/25/2015  E0.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:11 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             4 SE SAND SPRINGS       36.10N 96.06W
03/25/2015  E1.25 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0458 PM     HAIL             3 S TULSA               36.09N 95.92W
03/25/2015  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0501 PM     HAIL             ROGERS                  36.33N 94.12W
03/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:14 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
514 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             LOWELL                  36.26N 94.13W
03/25/2015  E1.50 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:21 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TORNADO          WAR EAGLE               36.27N 93.94W
03/25/2015                   BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PROBABLE RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO. TREE DAMAGE.

&&

RJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 7:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	29 min
Mar 24, 8:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	45 min
Mar 24, 8:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore	41 min
Mar 24, 8:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	34 min
Mar 24, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pittsburg, Pushmataha	45 min
Mar 24, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	30 min
Mar 24, 9:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	47 min
Mar 24, 9:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	27 min
Mar 24, 10:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	37 min
Mar 24, 10:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	28 min
Mar 25, 2:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, McIntosh, Mayes and 7 more	25 hr
Mar 25, 2:38 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Adair	45 hr
Mar 25, 2:38 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	3 days
Mar 25, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	25 min
Mar 25, 3:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	36 min
Mar 25, 3:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek	45 min
Mar 25, 3:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Pawnee	40 min
Mar 25, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	50 min
Mar 25, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee	45 min
Mar 25, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	41 min
Mar 25, 4:07 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware	33 hr
Mar 25, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Tulsa	50 min
Mar 25, 4:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	47 min
Mar 25, 4:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	39 min
Mar 25, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Washington	50 min
Mar 25, 4:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	20 min
Mar 25, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington	42 min
Mar 25, 5:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa	32 min
Mar 25, 5:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa	38 min
Mar 25, 5:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	TSA	Creek, Osage, Tulsa	36 min
Mar 25, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington	48 min
Mar 25, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	TSA	Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	30 min
Mar 25, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Creek, Mayes, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers and 3 more	59 min
Mar 25, 6:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	TSA	Creek, Mayes, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	26 min
Mar 25, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	32 min
Mar 25, 6:17 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa	4 hr
Mar 25, 6:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner	31 min
Mar 25, 6:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	27 min
Mar 25, 6:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	25 min
Mar 25, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers and 2 more	49 min
Mar 25, 6:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner	32 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.