Alert archive / Arkansas / River Flood Warnings in 2015
River Flood Warning 116, NWS Tulsa, OK
NWS Tulsa, OK issued this river flood warning at Dec 25, 2015, 10:40 PM CST for Crawford County, Franklin County, Arkansas. It took effect at Dec 27, 2015, 4:00 AM CST. It was in force for 28 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 25, 2015, 10:40 PM CST (04:40 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 27, 2015, 4:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Dec 28, 2015, 8:22 AM CST
- In force
- 28 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tulsa, OK
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Moderate
Counties Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Mulberry River (AR) near Mulberry (MLBA4). The gauge peaked at 17.72 ft at Dec 28, 2015, 3:00 AM CST.
- Action stage
- 10 ft
- Minor stage
- 18 ft
- Moderate stage
- 20 ft
- Major stage
- 22 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07252000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
096
WGUS44 KTSA 260441
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Arkansas...Oklahoma...
Arkansas River at Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sebastian
Counties.
Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam affecting Franklin...Johnson
and Logan Counties.
Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties.
Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin
Counties.
ARC033-131-261240-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0113.151227T0202Z-000000T0000Z/
/VBUA4.3.ER.151227T0202Z.151228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Arkansas River at Van Buren
* from Saturday evening until further notice.
* At 10:00 PM Friday, the stage was 19.76 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River at Van Buren is expected to rise
above flood stage Saturday evening and continue to rise to near
31.8 feet by Monday before dawn. This forecast is based on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor
later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs to industrial
businesses in the floodplain around Fort Smith. Flooding occurs in
Moffett, Oklahoma. Backwater flooding occurs in the trailer parks
near Lee Creek. Some residential subdivisions in the floodplain
around Fort Smith begin to flood. This is an extremely dangerous
and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 9454 3531 9454 3531 9422 3539 9422 3549 9439
$$
ARC047-071-083-261240-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0114.151227T0652Z-000000T0000Z/
/OZGA4.3.ER.151227T0652Z.151228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam
* from late Saturday night until further notice.
* At 9:00 PM Friday, the stage was 344.6 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 357.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Sunday before dawn and continue to rise to near 370.6 feet by
early Monday afternoon.This forecast is based on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor
later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 370.0 feet, this is the highest stage experienced since
the completion of the navigation system in 1969. Highways 309 and 288
northwest of Paris in Logan County are inundated by backwater up Six
Mile Creek. Backwater flooding spreads westward into Franklin
County. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 9405 3550 9382 3542 9347 3536 9349
3531 9371 3540 9385
$$
ARC033-OKC135-261240-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0115.151227T0248Z-151229T0500Z/
/VBRA4.3.ER.151227T0248Z.151227T1200Z.151228T2300Z.UU/
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Lee Creek near Van Buren
* from Saturday evening to Monday evening, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 7:38 AM Friday, the stage was 392.6 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Saturday evening and continue to rise to near 407.5 feet by Sunday
morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
This forecast is based on forecast rainfall. The river may crest
higher or lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall
occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 408.0 feet, major flooding occurs downstream from the
Lee Creek Reservoir. The recreational campground near Rena Road is
severely flooded. Rena Road is inundated by high water. Several
residences along Lee Creek downstream from the reservoir are
flooded. Flooding is comparable to the flooding which occurred on
April 24, 2004. This is a dangerous and life-threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3554 9452 3542 9442 3542 9437 3554 9437
$$
ARC033-047-261240-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T1000Z-151228T1304Z/
/MLBA4.2.ER.151227T1000Z.151227T1800Z.151228T0704Z.NO/
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Mulberry River near Mulberry
* from late Saturday night to Monday morning, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 9:30 PM Friday, the stage was 2.54 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise
above flood stage early Sunday morning and continue to rise to near
21.4 feet by early Sunday afternoon. The river is expected to fall
below flood stage Monday before dawn. This forecast is based on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor
later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, much of the low lying ground along the
Mulberry River within the Arkansas River Valley will be impacted.
County roads near the river may be inundated. The river is very
swift. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403
$$10 follow-up statements
045
WGUS84 KTSA 260856
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Arkansas...Oklahoma...
Arkansas River at Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sebastian
Counties.
Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam affecting Franklin...Johnson
and Logan Counties.
Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties.
Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin
Counties.
Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.
Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.
ARC033-131-261655-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0113.151227T0157Z-000000T0000Z/
/VBUA4.3.ER.151227T0157Z.151228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Van Buren.
* from this evening until further notice.
* At 2:00 AM Saturday, the stage was 19.90 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River at Van Buren is expected to rise
above flood stage this evening and continue to rise to near 31.8
feet Monday before dawn. This forecast is based entirely on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on where
the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to
the forecast.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs to industrial
businesses in the floodplain around Fort Smith. Flooding occurs in
Moffett, Oklahoma. Backwater flooding occurs in the trailer parks
near Lee Creek. Some residential subdivisions in the floodplain
around Fort Smith begin to flood. This is potentially dangerous
and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 9454 3531 9454 3531 9422 3539 9422 3549 9439
$$
ARC047-071-083-261655-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0114.151227T0647Z-000000T0000Z/
/OZGA4.3.ER.151227T0647Z.151228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam.
* from late tonight until further notice.
* At 2:00 AM Saturday, the stage was 344.9 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 357.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Sunday before dawn and continue to rise to near 370.6 feet by early
Monday afternoon. This forecast is based entirely on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on where
the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to
the forecast.
* Impact...At 370.0 feet, this is the highest stage experienced since
the completion of the navigation system in 1969. Highways 309 and
288 northwest of Paris in Logan County are inundated by backwater
up Six Mile Creek. Backwater flooding spreads westward into
Franklin County. This is a potentially dangerous and life
threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 9405 3550 9382 3542 9347 3536 9349
3531 9371 3540 9385
$$
ARC033-OKC135-261655-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0115.151227T0308Z-151229T0632Z/
/VBRA4.3.ER.151227T0308Z.151227T1200Z.151229T0032Z.UU/
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* from this evening to late Monday night, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 7:38 AM Friday, the stage was 392.6 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
tonight and continue to rise to near 407.5 feet by Sunday
morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
This forecast is based entirely on forecast rainfall. The river
may crest higher or lower depending on where the heaviest rainfall
occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to the forecast.
* Impact...At 408.0 feet, major flooding occurs downstream from the
Lee Creek Reservoir. The recreational campground near Rena Road is
severely flooded. Rena Road is inundated by high water. Several
residences along Lee Creek downstream from the reservoir are
flooded. Flooding is comparable to the flooding which occurred on
April 24, 2004. This is a potentially dangerous and life-threatening
situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3554 9452 3542 9442 3542 9437 3554 9437
$$
OKC079-261654-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0117.151227T0300Z-151229T1607Z/
/PTAO2.3.ER.151227T0300Z.151228T0600Z.151229T1007Z.NO/
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Poteau River near Poteau.
* from this evening to Tuesday morning, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 1:45 AM Saturday, the stage was 17.42 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Poteau is expected to rise above
flood stage tonight and continue to rise to near 33.0 feet by
Monday before dawn . The river is expected to fall below flood
stage early Tuesday morning. This forecast is based entirely on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on where
the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to
the forecast.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, extremely severe flooding affects pasture
lands and county roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of
Brazil Creek. The access road to the Robert S Kerr airport may be
flooded. This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 9468 3495 9471 3495 9461 3506 9454 3513 9456
$$
OKC079-261654-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0118.151226T2248Z-000000T0000Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.151226T2248Z.151228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Poteau River near Panama.
* from this afternoon until further notice.
* At 2:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 22.59 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Panama is expected to rise above
flood stage late this afternoon and continue to rise to near 45.0
feet Monday before dawn. This forecast is based entirely on forecast
rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on where
the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to
the forecast.
* Impact...At 43.0 feet, very severe agricultural flooding occurs.
Numerous county roads are totally impassable. A water treatment
facility near Panama is surrounded by high water. This exceeds the
flooding that occurred on May 12, 2015 when the river crested at
43.5 feet. This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening
situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3521 9470 3504 9462 3523 9442 3540 9439 3540 9449
$$
ARC033-047-261654-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T0955Z-151228T1300Z/
/MLBA4.2.ER.151227T0955Z.151227T1800Z.151228T0700Z.NO/
255 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Mulberry River near Mulberry.
* from late tonight to Monday morning, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 2:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 2.46 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise
above flood stage early Sunday morning and continue to rise to near
21.4 feet by early Sunday afternoon. The river is expected to fall
below flood stage Monday before dawn. This forecast is based entirely
on forecast rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to
the forecast.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, much of the low lying ground along the
Mulberry River within the Arkansas River Valley will be impacted.
County roads near the river may be inundated. The river is very
swift. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening
situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403
$$
Lacy327 WGUS84 KTSA 261509 FLSTSA FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 909 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin Counties. ARC033-047-262309- /O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T0830Z-151228T1243Z/ /MLBA4.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151227T1800Z.151228T0643Z.NO/ 909 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 The Flood Warning continues for The Mulberry River near Mulberry. * from late tonight to Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled. * At 8:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 2.47 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise above flood stage Sunday before dawn and continue to rise to near 21.3 feet by early Sunday afternoon. The river is expected to fall below flood stage Monday before dawn.This forecast is based on forecast rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast. * Impact...At 22.0 feet, much of the low lying ground along the Mulberry River within the Arkansas River Valley will be impacted. County roads near the river may be inundated. The river is very swift. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation. && LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403 $$
774
WGUS84 KTSA 261951
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
151 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Arkansas...Oklahoma...
Arkansas River at Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sebastian
Counties.
Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam affecting Franklin...Johnson
and Logan Counties.
Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties.
Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin
Counties.
ARC033-131-270351-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0113.151227T0839Z-151231T0800Z/
/VBUA4.3.ER.151227T0839Z.151228T0600Z.151231T0200Z.NO/
151 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Van Buren.
* from late tonight to late Wednesday night, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 1:00 PM Saturday, the stage was 19.73 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River at Van Buren is expected to rise
above flood stage Sunday before dawn and continue to rise to near
31.9 feet by Monday before dawn . The river is expected to fall
below flood stage Wednesday evening.The river may crest higher or
lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue
to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs to industrial
businesses in the floodplain around Fort Smith. Flooding occurs in
Moffett, Oklahoma. Backwater flooding occurs in the trailer parks
near Lee Creek. Some residential subdivisions in the floodplain
around Fort Smith begin to flood. This is an extremely dangerous
and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 9454 3531 9454 3531 9422 3539 9422 3549 9439
$$
ARC047-071-083-270351-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0114.151227T1508Z-000000T0000Z/
/OZGA4.3.ER.151227T1508Z.151228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
151 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam.
* from Sunday morning until further notice, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 1:00 PM Saturday, the stage was 346.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 357.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late
Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 371.1 feet by early
Monday afternoon.The river may crest higher or lower depending on
where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor
later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 370.0 feet, this is the highest stage experienced since
the completion of the navigation system in 1969. Highways 309 and
288 northwest of Paris in Logan County are inundated by backwater
up Six Mile Creek. Backwater flooding spreads westward into
Franklin County. This is an extremely dangerous and life
threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 9405 3550 9382 3542 9347 3536 9349
3531 9371 3540 9385
$$
ARC033-OKC135-270351-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0115.151227T0942Z-151230T1229Z/
/VBRA4.3.ER.151227T0942Z.151228T1200Z.151230T0629Z.UU/
151 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* from late tonight to Wednesday morning, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 6:41 AM Saturday, the stage was 393.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by early
Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 419.0 feet by Monday
morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday before
dawn. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor
later updates to this forecast.
$$
ARC033-047-270351-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T1912Z-151228T2240Z/
/MLBA4.2.ER.151227T1912Z.151228T0600Z.151228T1640Z.NO/
151 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Mulberry River near Mulberry.
* from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 1:30 PM Saturday, the stage was 2.57 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise
above flood stage early Sunday afternoon and continue to rise to
near 21.3 feet by Monday before dawn . The river is expected to
fall below flood stage late Monday morning. The river may crest
higher or lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall
occurs. Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, much of the low lying ground along the
Mulberry River within the Arkansas River Valley will be impacted.
County roads near the river may be inundated. The river is very
swift. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening
situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403
$$426 WGUS84 KTSA 270232 FLSTSA FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 832 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin Counties. ARC033-047-271032- /O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T1800Z-151229T0025Z/ /MLBA4.2.ER.151227T1800Z.151228T0600Z.151228T1825Z.NO/ 832 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening... The Flood Warning continues for The Mulberry River near Mulberry. * from Sunday afternoon to Monday evening, or until the warning is cancelled. * At 7:30 PM Saturday, the stage was 4.85 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise above flood stage early Sunday afternoon and continue to rise to near 21.0 feet by Monday before dawn . The river is expected to fall below flood stage early Monday afternoon. * Impact...At 22.0 feet, much of the low lying ground along the Mulberry River within the Arkansas River Valley will be impacted. County roads near the river may be inundated. The river is very swift. This is an extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening situation. && LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403 $$
092 WGUS84 KTSA 270710 FLSTSA FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 110 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin Counties. ARC033-047-271510- /O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T2317Z-151228T2344Z/ /MLBA4.2.ER.151227T2317Z.151228T0600Z.151228T1744Z.NO/ 110 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 The Flood Warning continues for The Mulberry River near Mulberry. * from this afternoon to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled. * At 12:30 AM Sunday, the stage was 5.06 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise above flood stage late this afternoon and continue to rise to near 20.5 feet by Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Monday morning. * Impact...At 20.0 feet, numerous county roads and bridges are inundated and possibly damaged by swift currents. && LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403 $$
942
WGUS84 KTSA 271438
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Arkansas...Oklahoma...
Arkansas River at Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sebastian
Counties.
Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam affecting Franklin...Johnson
and Logan Counties.
Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties.
Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin
Counties.
Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.
Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.
ARC033-131-272238-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0113.151227T1818Z-151231T1330Z/
/VBUA4.3.ER.151227T1818Z.151229T0000Z.151231T0730Z.NO/
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Van Buren.
* from this afternoon to Thursday morning, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 8:00 AM Sunday, the stage was 20.47 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River at Van Buren is expected to rise
above flood stage this afternoon and continue to rise to near 32.1
feet by Monday evening. The river is expected to fall below flood
stage Thursday before dawn .
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, damaging flooding occurs along the Arkansas
River floodplain from Moffett, Oklahoma downstream to Lock and Dam
13. The port of Fort Smith and nearby businesses are flooded.
Backwater flooding occurs in the trailer parks next to Lee Creek.
Some residential subdivisions around Fort Smith are flooded. This
is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 9454 3531 9454 3531 9422 3539 9422 3549 9439
$$
ARC047-071-083-272238-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0114.151228T0114Z-160101T0216Z/
/OZGA4.3.ER.151228T0114Z.151229T0600Z.151231T2016Z.NO/
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam.
* from this evening to Thursday evening, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 8:00 AM Sunday, the stage was 349.7 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 357.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by this
evening and continue to rise to near 371.3 feet by Tuesday before
dawn .The river will fall below flood stage by early Thursday
afternoon.
* Impact...At 370.0 feet, this is the highest stage experienced since
the completion of the navigation system in 1969. Highways 309 and
288 northwest of Paris in Logan County are inundated by backwater
up Six Mile Creek. Backwater flooding spreads westward into
Franklin County. This is an extremely dangerous and life
threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 9405 3550 9382 3542 9347 3536 9349
3531 9371 3540 9385
$$
ARC033-OKC135-272238-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0115.151227T1800Z-151230T1034Z/
/VBRA4.3.ER.151227T1800Z.151228T1200Z.151230T0434Z.UU/
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* from this afternoon to late Tuesday night, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 6:24 AM Sunday, the stage was 396.9 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by this
afternoon and continue to rise to near 415.7 feet by Monday
morning.The river will fall below flood stage by late Tuesday
evening.
* Impact...At 414.0 feet, major flooding occurs downstream from the
Lee Creek Reservoir. Residences approximately one quarter mile
downstream of the reservoir begin to be impacted by flood water.
Residences approximately two-thirds of a mile downstream of the
reservoir are inundated to a depth of several feet. The
recreational campground near Rena Road is severely flooded. Rena
Road is inundated by high water. This is a dangerous and
life-threatening situation.
$$
OKC079-272237-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0117.151227T2126Z-151229T2117Z/
/PTAO2.3.ER.151227T2126Z.151228T1800Z.151229T1517Z.NO/
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Poteau River near Poteau.
* from this afternoon to Tuesday afternoon, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 8:01 AM Sunday, the stage was 14.02 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Poteau is expected to rise above
flood stage late this afternoon and continue to rise to near 32.4
feet by early Monday afternoon. The river is expected to fall below
flood stage late Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, extremely severe flooding affects pasture
lands and county roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of
Brazil Creek. The access road to the Robert S Kerr airport may be
flooded. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 9468 3495 9471 3495 9461 3506 9454 3513 9456
$$
OKC079-272237-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0118.000000T0000Z-160101T0153Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.151227T1556Z.151229T0000Z.151231T1953Z.NO/
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Poteau River near Panama.
* until Thursday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:30 AM Sunday, the stage was 25.42 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Panama is expected to rise above
flood stage late this morning and continue to rise to near 45.5
feet by Monday evening. The river is expected to fall below flood
stage early Thursday afternoon.
&&
LAT...LON 3521 9470 3504 9462 3523 9442 3540 9439 3540 9449
$$
ARC033-047-272237-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151228T0102Z-151229T0017Z/
/MLBA4.2.ER.151228T0102Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1817Z.NO/
838 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Mulberry River near Mulberry.
* from this evening to Monday evening, or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 7:30 AM Sunday, the stage was 9.33 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise
above flood stage this evening and continue to rise to near 20.5
feet by Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood
stage early Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, numerous county roads and bridges are
inundated and possibly damaged by swift currents.
&&
LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403
$$632 WGUS84 KTSA 272035 FLSTSA FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 235 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin Counties. ARC033-047-280435- /O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.151227T2324Z-151228T2255Z/ /MLBA4.2.ER.151227T2324Z.151228T0600Z.151228T1655Z.NO/ 235 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 The Flood Warning continues for The Mulberry River near Mulberry. * until Monday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled. * At 1:30 PM Sunday, the stage was 11.41 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise above flood stage late this afternoon and continue to rise to near 20.8 feet by Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Monday morning. * Impact...At 20.0 feet, numerous county roads and bridges are inundated and possibly damaged by swift currents. && LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403 $$
291 WGUS84 KTSA 280243 FLSTSA FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 843 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin Counties. ARC033-047-281043- /O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-151228T2131Z/ /MLBA4.1.ER.151228T0600Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1531Z.NO/ 843 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 The Flood Warning continues for The Mulberry River near Mulberry. * until Monday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled. * At 8:30 PM Sunday, the stage was 15.86 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise above flood stage Monday before dawn and continue to rise to near 19.0 feet by Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Monday morning. * Impact...At 20.0 feet, numerous county roads and bridges are inundated and possibly damaged by swift currents. && LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403 $$
695
WGUS84 KTSA 280840
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Arkansas...Oklahoma...
Arkansas River at Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sebastian
Counties.
Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam affecting Franklin...Johnson
and Logan Counties.
Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties.
Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin
Counties.
Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.
Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.
ARC033-131-281640-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-160101T0224Z/
/VBUA4.3.ER.151227T1707Z.151228T1800Z.151231T2024Z.NO/
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Van Buren.
* until Thursday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 2:00 AM Monday, the stage was 30.81 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River at Van Buren will continue rising to
near 32.8 feet this afternoon. The river is expected to fall below
flood stage early Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, damaging flooding occurs along the Arkansas
River floodplain from Moffett, Oklahoma downstream to Lock and Dam
13. The port of Fort Smith and nearby businesses are flooded.
Backwater flooding occurs in the trailer parks next to Lee Creek.
Some residential subdivisions around Fort Smith are flooded. This
is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 9454 3531 9454 3531 9422 3539 9422 3549 9439
$$
ARC047-071-083-281639-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160101T0000Z/
/OZGA4.3.ER.151228T0404Z.151229T1200Z.151231T1800Z.NO/
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Arkansas River at Ozark Lock and Dam.
* until Thursday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 2:00 AM Monday, the stage was 358.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 357.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 370.5 feet by
Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early
Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 370.0 feet, this is the highest stage experienced since
the completion of the navigation system in 1969. Highways 309 and
288 northwest of Paris in Logan County are inundated by backwater
up Six Mile Creek. Backwater flooding spreads westward into
Franklin County. This is an extremely dangerous and life
threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 9405 3550 9382 3542 9347 3536 9349
3531 9371 3540 9385
$$
ARC033-OKC135-281639-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-151229T2012Z/
/VBRA4.3.ER.151227T1525Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1412Z.UU/
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* until Tuesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:34 AM Monday, the stage was 417.1 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 418.5 feet by
this morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday
morning.
* Impact...Devastating flooding occurs downstream from the Lee
Creek Reservoir. Residences approximately one quarter mile
downstream of the reservoir begin to be impacted by flood water.
Residences approximately two-thirds of a mile downstream of the
reservoir are inundated to a depth of several feet. The recreational
campground near Rena Road is severely flooded. Rena Road is
inundated by high water. This is an extremely dangerous and life
threatening situation.
$$
OKC079-281639-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0117.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PTAO2.3.ER.151227T1854Z.151228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Poteau River near Poteau.
* until further notice.
* At 2:01 AM Monday, the stage was 31.14 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Poteau will continue rising to
near 33.0 feet this afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, extremely severe flooding affects pasture
lands and county roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of
Brazil Creek. The access road to the Robert S Kerr airport may be
flooded. This is a dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 9468 3495 9471 3495 9461 3506 9454 3513 9456
$$
OKC079-281639-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0118.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PANO2.3.ER.151227T1815Z.151229T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
...Flood Warning extended until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Poteau River near Panama.
* until further notice.
* At 1:30 AM Monday, the stage was 39.55 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Panama will continue rising to
near 45.2 feet this evening then begin falling.
* Impact...Very severe agricultural flooding occurs. Numerous county
roads are totally impassable. A water treatment facility near
Panama is surrounded by high water. This is an extrememly
dangerous and life threatening situation.
&&
LAT...LON 3521 9470 3504 9462 3523 9442 3540 9439 3540 9449
$$
ARC033-047-281639-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-151228T2036Z/
/MLBA4.1.ER.151228T0811Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1436Z.NO/
240 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Mulberry River near Mulberry.
* until this afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1:30 AM Monday, the stage was 17.82 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry is expected to rise
above flood stage before dawn and continue to rise to near 19.0
feet by this morning. The river is expected to fall below flood
stage this morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, numerous county roads and bridges are
inundated and possibly damaged by swift currents.
&&
LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403
$$
Lacy160 WGUS84 KTSA 281422 FLSTSA FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 822 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Arkansas... Mulberry River near Mulberry affecting Crawford and Franklin Counties. ARC033-047-281452- /O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-151228T2036Z/ /MLBA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 822 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 The Flood Warning is cancelled for The Mulberry River near Mulberry. * At 7:30 AM Monday, the stage was 16.45 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Forecast...The Mulberry River near Mulberry crested below flood stage at 17.9 feet. The river will remain below flood stage. * Impact...At 16.0 feet, agricultural and timber lands along the left bank and in the vicinity of the gage are threatened. The first several miles of the river are subject to backwater flooding from the Arkansas River. Mulberry and the area south of I-40 are threatened. The river is swift and dangerous. && LAT...LON 3545 9406 3561 9404 3562 9394 3557 9400 3546 9403 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 25, 9:54 PM CST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 9:54 PM CST, 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
954 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
00Z upper air and satellite water vapor shows long
wave west of Rockies still in organizational phase
while dropping southeast. Plume Pacific moisture
channeled our way via 100+ upper jet also evident
in water vapor image.
Expect precipitation to rapidly break out during
the six hour 09z-15z period..then continue raining
through the rest of the weekend into Sunday night.
Each GFS ECMWF model run since LAST Friday has
signaled an unusually significant flood event for
this weekend. Now it begins between 09z and 15z.
Be ready. GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions with high clouds will deteriorate
over the next couple of hours. Low clouds will bring prevailing
MVFR ceilings to all sites for the remainder of the overnight
hours. Widespread TSRA and IFR conditions will overspread the
region tomorrow during the day.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
After a nice Christmas Day, with record high temperatures at
McAlester, the weather will go downhill starting later tonight.
The much advertised heavy rainfall event will begin to unfold late
tonight as elevated convection begins to develop across the area.
Precipitation coverage and intensity will increase during the day
Saturday as a cold front moves into the area from the west. This
front will sag slowly southeast across the area Saturday afternoon
and night with the heaviest rainfall focusing near and just behind
the shallow surface frontal boundary. The heaviest rainfall
amounts still look to occur from southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas, but the latest trends also shift heavy rainfall amounts
farther to the northwest. Thus will expand the flash flood watch
to include all but the far northwest part of our forecast area. At
this time, it appears temperatures will remain above freezing
through Sunday in our entire forecast area, but it may be a close
call in western and northern Osage County.
The strong upper low will eject rapidly northeast across our area
later Sunday night and Monday morning. Temperatures aloft will
cool rapidly as this occurs, which may lead to a mix with or
change over to snow in some places despite marginal surface
temperatures. However, a strong dry slot is also likely to
develop, which may greatly limit snowfall coverage and/or
intensity, and in fact may result in drizzle instead of snow,
especially once the low departs during the day Monday. Given the
uncertainty, have kept snow amounts quite light in our area.
Once this system departs, an extended period of below normal
temperatures will follow for the rest of next week. Another upper
level system will sweep across the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday and may result in some light snow although low level
moisture will be limited. Temperatures may be warm enough in the
southern part of the forecast area for mainly light rain or a
rain/snow mix with this system. Any snow accumulations should be
on the light side.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures through Saturday, with the
temperature forecast Saturday night through Sunday night based
strongly on the NAM12 temperatures, as that model handles shallow
cold air the best.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from midnight CST tonight through late Sunday
night for OKZ049-053-055>058-060>076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch from midnight CST tonight through late Sunday
night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 52 63 37 39 / 50 100 100 100
FSM 52 71 58 60 / 60 100 100 100
MLC 58 71 44 46 / 60 100 100 90
BVO 48 61 36 38 / 40 100 100 100
FYV 50 68 46 48 / 60 100 100 100
BYV 47 68 43 45 / 50 100 100 100
MKO 52 68 43 45 / 50 100 100 100
MIO 48 63 38 40 / 50 100 100 100
F10 55 67 39 41 / 50 100 100 90
HHW 58 74 58 60 / 70 80 100 100
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for OKZ049-053-
055>058-060>076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
&&
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 25, 5:55 PM CST, 4 hours 45 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
555 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
RISK...ELEVATED
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
*THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR OR RECORD RIVER FLOODING EXISTS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.*
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
5 TO 10 INCHES...IS FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...
IN COMBINATION WITH CURRENTLY SATURATED SOILS WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM
RAINFALL RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE RUNOFF
WILL LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING ON A NUMBER OF RIVERS & THE POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD FLOODING ON A FEW RIVERS.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES TO ELEVATED LEVELS SATURDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING A RISK OF TORNADOES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE JUST A SMALL
THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES MONDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
THIS WILL BE A IS A HIGH END FLOOD EVENT.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOST RIVERS / STREAMS WILL FLOOD... SOME STREAMS AND A FEW RIVERS
TO HISTORIC LEVELS. WATER RESCUES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.The office that day
Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 10:40 PM CST | River Flood Warning | TSA | Crawford, Sebastian | 10 days |
| Dec 25, 10:40 PM CST | River Flood Warning | TSA | Franklin, Johnson, Logan | 10 days |
| Dec 25, 10:40 PM CST | River Flood Warning | TSA | Crawford | 8 days |
| Dec 25, 10:55 PM CST | River Flood Warning | TSA | Carroll | 64 hr |
| Dec 26, 12:40 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | TSA | Sebastian | 50 min |
| Dec 26, 1:42 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | TSA | Franklin, Madison | 48 min |
| Dec 26, 3:38 PM CST | Tornado Warning | TSA | Benton | 37 min |
| Dec 26, 4:08 PM CST | Areal Flood Warning | TSA | Benton | 12 hr |
| Dec 26, 5:16 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton | 29 min |
| Dec 26, 5:42 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton | 48 min |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.