Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Topeka, KS

May 25, 2015Brown County, Jackson County, Nemaha County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 25, 2015, 4:31 PM CDT for Brown County, Jackson County, Nemaha County, Kansas. It was in force for 44 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2015, 4:31 PM CDT (21:31 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2015, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Brown County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Nemaha County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 25, 4:40 PM CDT	HAIL 2.75	4 Ne Wetmore, KS	BASEBALL SIZE HAIL APPROX. 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WETMORE.
May 25, 4:45 PM CDT	HAIL 2.5	8 N Netawaka, KS
May 25, 4:49 PM CDT	HAIL 2	1 Sw Powhattan, KS
May 25, 4:52 PM CDT	HAIL 1	W Powhattan, KS
May 25, 4:54 PM CDT	HAIL 4.5	7 N Netawaka, KS	SIZE WAS 4.75 INCHES MEASURED BY HAIL STONE RESEARCH PROJECT

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 9 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 25, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -273 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 997 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

164 
WUUS53 KTOP 252131
SVRTOP
KSC013-085-131-252215-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0043.150525T2131Z-150525T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
431 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  EXTREME NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 428 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WETMORE...
  AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HIAWATHA...KICKAPOO RESERVATION...FAIRVIEW...POWHATTAN...WILLIS...
  HAMLIN AND ROBINSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9561 3979 9533 3971 9534 3970 9534
      3962 9575 3962 9584 3970 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 227DEG 23KT 3969 9576

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

2 follow-up statements

498 
WWUS53 KTOP 252145
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSC085-131-252155-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
NEMAHA-JACKSON-
445 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
AND EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3979 9533 3970 9534 3965 9559 3965 9578
      3966 9579 3977 9579 3999 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 235DEG 20KT 3973 9568

$$

KSC013-252215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
BROWN-
445 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KICKAPOO
RESERVATION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL 4      
         MILES NORTHEAST OF WETMORE AT 440 PM.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT
         SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND
         VEHICLES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  POWHATTAN AROUND 455 PM CDT.
  WILLIS AROUND 505 PM CDT.
  HIAWATHA AND ROBINSON AROUND 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9533 3970 9534 3965 9559 3965 9578
      3966 9579 3977 9579 3999 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 235DEG 20KT 3973 9568

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BARJENBRUCH

298 
WWUS53 KTOP 252158
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSC013-252215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
BROWN-
458 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POWHATTAN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED 4.75 INCH HAIL 7 MILES    
         NORTH OF NETAWAKA AT 453 PM.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT
         SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND
         VEHICLES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLIS AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  ROBINSON AROUND 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9533 3970 9534 3965 9558 3965 9564
      3971 9568 3980 9570 3994 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 254DEG 21KT 3972 9558

HAIL...4.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BARJENBRUCH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 25, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
256 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Fcst focus on evolution of convection this evening/overnight. Two
main features of note include upper low across western Nebraska and
upper wave and associated bow echo racing northeast into OK.  19Z
sfc map showed a weak low east of DDC helping to maximize
mass/moisture convergence from ICT north toward SLN. Vis sat loop
shows convection already developing under the cirrus canopy across
southern KS while the CU field across central KS near SLN is
becoming more agitated.  Early morning outflow boundary is still
visible across southern MO/northern OK while the wind fields across
our area have become more uniform out of the S with dewpoints in the
mid 60s yielding MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/KG.  6KM shear is
decreasing with time however as main mid lvl jet moves northeast
away from the area.  That said modest 6KM shear of 20-30KTs will
persist overnight.

Convective models have been consistent in showing storms developing
near SLN next few hours and moving NE across parts of the area.
Would expect hail/dmg wind to be main hazards though tornado risk
cannot be completely ruled out given low level profile for a time
this afternoon. Expect a cluster of storms to form and impact the
area from 4pm through 12a with some additional storms expected to
move north out of southern KS on the northern side of that upper
wave. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rains however LLJ
weakens and veers by 06z so don't see a persistent training/flood
risk overnight but will need to be cautious with any rains that fall
where flooding is ongoing.

Storm chcs should diminish between 6z
and 12z Tues with most of Tues expected to be dry.  A weak cold
front will attempt to sag into the area later Tues and could spark
convection along it mainly north of I-70 Tues but support and shear
don't look too impressive so will keep chcs low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the period Tuesday night through Thursday, the central plains
will be southwest flow aloft as the upper trough over the desert
southwest slowly moves east. At the surface, a weak surface
boundary over southern Kansas Tuesday night should slowly lift
north Wednesday and Thursday across the plains. Southerly flow
across Kansas should increase precipitable water values to above
1.5 inches by Friday. There should be weak shortwaves in the flow
coupled with a moist unstable airmass and a boundary in the area
will yield modest POPs through this period. The models are
uncertain about the timing of precipitation and associated QPF,
but the pattern favors precipitation. Temperatures should be
seasonable.

The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF continue the trend of moving the western US
upper trough into the plains by Saturday. At the same time, a
strong northern stream shortwave over the great lakes drives a
Canadian airmass into the northern and eventually the central
plains late this week and this weekend. The GFS has been showing this
for several runs and ECMWF is as well. This airmass will likely
interact with shortwave energy coming out of the southwest to
produce more showers and storms across the central plains. Higher
POPS are the result along with clouds and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238CDT MON MAY 25 2015

This forecast period is another tricky setup. Cloud cover should
help limit convection, however, there is a good likelihood that
some convection does develop mainly from Central KS into
northeastern KS later this afternoon. This could impact the
terminals but left VCTS for now. Any activity should end shortly
after sunset this evening. In the meantime, good confidence that
winds will continue out of the South and remain gusty as there has
been some decent mixing taking place. The second half of the TAF
period should be more settled, but still a minor chance of morning
storms perhaps over North central KS into NE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 3:44 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO EXIST THIS
EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE COTTONWOOD...NEOSHO AND
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COTTONWOOD...NEOSHO AND MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM TODAY.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 25, 3:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSZ010-011-023-024-252100-
JACKSON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-
330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN
NEMAHA...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 400 PM CDT...TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN
NEMAHA...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
SOLDIER...WHEATON...ONAGA...HAVENSVILLE...LILLIS...CORNING...GOFF
AND WETMORE.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9579 3960 9579 3957 9585 3941 9612
      3940 9658 3971 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 224DEG 31KT 3948 9608

BARJENBRUCH

Local storm report, May 25, 4:00 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             6 N ONAGA               39.58N 96.17W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BYRNE

Local storm report, May 25, 4:07 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             2 SW CARLTON            38.67N 97.32W
05/25/2015  M1.25 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

Local storm report, May 25, 4:28 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
428 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             5 SSW CENTRALIA         39.67N 96.17W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WIBW

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 25, 4:30 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
430 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             5 N WETMORE             39.71N 95.81W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BYRNE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 8:15 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Lyon	17 hr
May 25, 3:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Pottawatomie	30 min
May 25, 3:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Nemaha, Pottawatomie	28 min
May 25, 4:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson	15 min
May 25, 4:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Nemaha	38 min
May 25, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Nemaha	30 min
May 25, 4:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Ottawa	45 min
May 25, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley	42 min
May 25, 5:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown	53 min
May 25, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Nemaha	35 min
May 25, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley	31 min
May 25, 5:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Ottawa	30 min
May 25, 5:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Ottawa, Riley	4 hr
May 25, 6:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Nemaha	119 min
May 25, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Nemaha	23 min
May 25, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha, Pottawatomie	31 min
May 25, 6:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Cloud	28 min
May 25, 6:18 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Brown, Nemaha	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.