Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Topeka, KS

361 
WWUS53 KTOP 252139
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
439 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSC027-041-143-252215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
OTTAWA-CLAY-DICKINSON-
439 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DICKINSON...SOUTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 436 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF MOONLIGHT TO NEW CAMBRIA...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...PUBLIC.  QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 3 MILES EAST OF 
SOLOMON AT 437 PM.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NILES...WAKEFIELD...MANCHESTER AND LONGFORD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 273.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 9745 3943 9696 3918 9696 3902 9709
      3887 9737 3896 9738 3896 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 202DEG 33KT 3914 9710 3892 9744

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

821 
WWUS53 KTOP 252148
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSC027-041-143-252215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
OTTAWA-CLAY-DICKINSON-
448 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DICKINSON...SOUTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 446 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAKEFIELD TO NILES...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...PUBLIC. AT 445 PM QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 4 MILES 
NORTH OF MILFORD.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANCHESTER AND LONGFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 9745 3943 9696 3919 9696 3915 9699
      3899 9718 3888 9738 3896 9738 3896 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 202DEG 33KT 3921 9706 3899 9740

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

PHILLIPS

904 
WWUS53 KTOP 252207
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
507 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSC143-252217-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
OTTAWA-
507 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3921 9737 3943 9696 3921 9696 3901 9737
      3903 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 202DEG 33KT 3937 9698 3915 9732

$$

KSC027-041-252215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
CLAY-DICKINSON-
507 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DICKINSON AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF GREEN TO LONGFORD...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONGFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 9737 3943 9696 3921 9696 3901 9737
      3903 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 202DEG 33KT 3937 9698 3915 9732

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

PHILLIPS

259 
WWUS53 KTOP 252216
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
516 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSC027-041-252226-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T2215Z/
CLAY-DICKINSON-
516 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE 
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHEAST CLAY COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3921 9737 3943 9696 3921 9696 3901 9737
      3903 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 202DEG 33KT 3937 9698 3915 9732

$$

PHILLIPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
256 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Fcst focus on evolution of convection this evening/overnight. Two
main features of note include upper low across western Nebraska and
upper wave and associated bow echo racing northeast into OK.  19Z
sfc map showed a weak low east of DDC helping to maximize
mass/moisture convergence from ICT north toward SLN. Vis sat loop
shows convection already developing under the cirrus canopy across
southern KS while the CU field across central KS near SLN is
becoming more agitated.  Early morning outflow boundary is still
visible across southern MO/northern OK while the wind fields across
our area have become more uniform out of the S with dewpoints in the
mid 60s yielding MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/KG.  6KM shear is
decreasing with time however as main mid lvl jet moves northeast
away from the area.  That said modest 6KM shear of 20-30KTs will
persist overnight.

Convective models have been consistent in showing storms developing
near SLN next few hours and moving NE across parts of the area.
Would expect hail/dmg wind to be main hazards though tornado risk
cannot be completely ruled out given low level profile for a time
this afternoon. Expect a cluster of storms to form and impact the
area from 4pm through 12a with some additional storms expected to
move north out of southern KS on the northern side of that upper
wave. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rains however LLJ
weakens and veers by 06z so don't see a persistent training/flood
risk overnight but will need to be cautious with any rains that fall
where flooding is ongoing.

Storm chcs should diminish between 6z
and 12z Tues with most of Tues expected to be dry.  A weak cold
front will attempt to sag into the area later Tues and could spark
convection along it mainly north of I-70 Tues but support and shear
don't look too impressive so will keep chcs low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the period Tuesday night through Thursday, the central plains
will be southwest flow aloft as the upper trough over the desert
southwest slowly moves east. At the surface, a weak surface
boundary over southern Kansas Tuesday night should slowly lift
north Wednesday and Thursday across the plains. Southerly flow
across Kansas should increase precipitable water values to above
1.5 inches by Friday. There should be weak shortwaves in the flow
coupled with a moist unstable airmass and a boundary in the area
will yield modest POPs through this period. The models are
uncertain about the timing of precipitation and associated QPF,
but the pattern favors precipitation. Temperatures should be
seasonable.

The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF continue the trend of moving the western US
upper trough into the plains by Saturday. At the same time, a
strong northern stream shortwave over the great lakes drives a
Canadian airmass into the northern and eventually the central
plains late this week and this weekend. The GFS has been showing this
for several runs and ECMWF is as well. This airmass will likely
interact with shortwave energy coming out of the southwest to
produce more showers and storms across the central plains. Higher
POPS are the result along with clouds and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238CDT MON MAY 25 2015

This forecast period is another tricky setup. Cloud cover should
help limit convection, however, there is a good likelihood that
some convection does develop mainly from Central KS into
northeastern KS later this afternoon. This could impact the
terminals but left VCTS for now. Any activity should end shortly
after sunset this evening. In the meantime, good confidence that
winds will continue out of the South and remain gusty as there has
been some decent mixing taking place. The second half of the TAF
period should be more settled, but still a minor chance of morning
storms perhaps over North central KS into NE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Drake

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO EXIST THIS
EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE COTTONWOOD...NEOSHO AND
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COTTONWOOD...NEOSHO AND MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM TODAY.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

KSZ010-011-023-024-252100-
JACKSON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-
330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN
NEMAHA...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 400 PM CDT...TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN
NEMAHA...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
SOLDIER...WHEATON...ONAGA...HAVENSVILLE...LILLIS...CORNING...GOFF
AND WETMORE.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9579 3960 9579 3957 9585 3941 9612
      3940 9658 3971 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 224DEG 31KT 3948 9608

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             6 N ONAGA               39.58N 96.17W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             2 SW CARLTON            38.67N 97.32W
05/25/2015  M1.25 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
428 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             5 SSW CENTRALIA         39.67N 96.17W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WIBW

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
430 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             5 N WETMORE             39.71N 95.81W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BYRNE