Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Topeka, KS

735 
WWUS53 KTOP 181156
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSC003-059-181230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150918T1230Z/
FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-
656 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 655 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF 
GARNETT... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT...RICHMOND...GREELEY...LANE AND HARRIS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9540 3819 9551 3841 9551 3850 9507
      3826 9506 3825 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 253DEG 20KT 3829 9532 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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932 
WWUS53 KTOP 181211
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSC003-059-181230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150918T1230Z/
FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-
711 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 711 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF 
GARNETT... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT...RICHMOND...GREELEY AND LANE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9540 3840 9542 3850 9507 3826 9506
      3825 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 254DEG 27KT 3833 9529 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BB

563 
WWUS53 KTOP 181218
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
718 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSC003-059-181228-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150918T1230Z/
FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-
718 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3820 9540 3840 9542 3850 9507 3826 9506
      3825 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 242DEG 31KT 3836 9522 

$$

BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

Early this morning the cold front was roughly bisecting the CWA,
stretching from Alta Vista to Wamego to Hiawatha.  The mid-level
trough was stretched across the northern Rockies, advancing into the
Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery showed a weak embedded wave
within the mid-level flow over southeast Kansas, which, combined
with the low-level jet axis, was helping to produce scattered
thunderstorms that were tracking northeastward into east central
Kansas. Short-range models show these scattered storms diminishing
across east central Kansas shortly after sunrise, with the focus for
additional showers and thunderstorms shifting northward to the
Nebraska/Kansas border as some enhanced lift is expected across that
area ahead of the advancing trough.  While the best moisture and
lift with this morning activity may be focused in far southeast
Nebraska, there is some uncertainty still amongst the short-range
models with how far south into north central and northeast Kansas
this precipitation will develop.  The coverage of this morning
activity certainly may have an impact on the potential for severe
storms this afternoon as there is uncertainty with regards to how
much the region will destabilize this morning into this afternoon.
However, there is the potential for several favorable conditions to
come together to support the development of some supercell
thunderstorms. Expect enhanced lift by this afternoon as you have
the cold front still stretched across eastern Kansas and the mid-
level trough sweeping across the Northern and Central Plains, which
will help to push this stalled system eastward out of the area by
this evening.  In addition to ample lift in the low/mid levels,
models continue to show limited inhibition by early to mid afternoon
with CAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
values of around 40kts. As a result, the primary threats will be
some damaging winds and large hail.  However, it is worth noting
that 0-1km bulk shear and helicity values across far northeast
Kansas into northwest/far northern Missouri suggest that there is an
isolated tornado threat as well for a small window of time, likely
mid to late afternoon for far northeast Kansas.  Also cannot rule
out the potential for some locally heavy rainfall from these storms
as PWAT values should be upwards of 1.7-1.9 inches with some
training storms possible as the low-level flow should be roughly
parallel to the exiting boundary.  The main area of concern for some
localized flooding would be across far northeast Kansas where
upwards of 2-3 inches of rain fell last evening from thunderstorms.
The advancing trough will help to quickly push the front eastward
out of the area by early evening, with cooler, drier air quickly
surging into the area behind this system.  With the placement of the
front and the potential for scattered morning precipitation, have
cooled high temperatures a bit for today with a decent spread
expected, ranging from around 70 in north central Kansas to the
middle 80s in east central Kansas. Expect dry conditions by the
overnight hours tonight and temperatures cooling into the upper 40s
to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

The strong cold front will have pushed through the forecast area
by early Saturday morning with precipitation rapidly clearing out.
Strong high pressure will build toward the area and remnant low
level moisture may allow patchy fog to develop around sunrise on
Saturday in north central KS where winds will become light.
Temperatures will be much cooler through the weekend with highs
around 70 on Saturday and in the mid 70s on Sunday. Lows each
morning should be around 50...cooler in north central KS early
Saturday and cooler in eastern KS early Sunday given proximity to
the surface high pressure and heart of the cool airmass. By late
Sunday, short wave energy will move northwest to southeast across
the area. This will provide a fair amount of vertical motion
across the area but moisture will be lacking and have kept the
forecast dry at this time.

Weak upper ridging builds into the region for early next week with
an associated warming trend back well into the 80s for much of the
week. Monday night into Tuesday a weak front will sag into the
area and may provide a focus for a few storms. Otherwise the next
potential precipitation maker is in the form of a short wave
trough forecast to move from Southern California into the Central
Plains by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

For the 12z TAFs, morning thunderstorms may pass near KTOP/KFOE
before exiting to the east. With the cold front lingering in the
area, expect wind directions to be a bit variable at times near the
TAF sites. Better chances for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms will be this afternoon into early evening as the cold
front tracks to the east. Any storms that develop near the TAF sites
this afternoon may be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
Winds will shift to the north behind the frontal passage this
evening through the overnight hours. There is uncertainty as to
whether or not MVFR stratus will develop this evening and overnight
behind this exiting system, so future TAF issuances will need to
continue to monitor this potential.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
441 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
441 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA STATE
BORDER. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CONDITIONAL AND AFFECTED BY THE
COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSZ055-181115-
OSAGE-
541 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 615 AM
CDT...

AT 541 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
OSAGE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSAGE CITY...CARBONDALE...OVERBROOK...LYNDON...SCRANTON AND POMONA
LAKE.

LAT...LON 3866 9551 3849 9590 3858 9594 3886 9565
      3873 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 231DEG 31KT 3862 9583

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND GST     OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
09/18/2015  E70 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH. TOO DARK TO SEE ANY DAMAGE
            AT THIS TIME. PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
555 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 AM     HAIL             1 WSW OSAGE CITY        38.63N 95.83W
09/18/2015  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG WINDS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
09/18/2015                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN OSAGE
            CITY.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSZ058-059-181145-
ANDERSON-COFFEY-
620 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 620 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEW STRAWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY...NEW STRAWN...WESTPHALIA AND HARRIS.

LAT...LON 3828 9584 3844 9562 3843 9551 3839 9551
      3839 9528 3819 9537 3814 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 240DEG 34KT 3827 9563

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

KSZ038-039-055-181200-
WABAUNSEE-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
629 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN SHAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM
CDT...

AT 629 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HARVEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN TOPEKA...DOVER...AUBURN...HARVEYVILLE AND PAULINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 351 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 176.

LAT...LON 3874 9598 3889 9610 3910 9581 3888 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 238DEG 30KT 3886 9596

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