Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2015

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A low pressure system over the Gulf will move through the CWA
this evening. As of 1 pm EST the warm front is located offshore
the Panhandle Gulf Coast. The warm front will move through the
area later this afternoon, bringing warm, moist air to the
southern half of the CWA. This will be the area where a line of
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon as a cold front
approaches. Heavy rain is likely ahead of the warm front this
afternoon in the GA/AL counties. Heavy rain is likely for the FL
Panhandle and Big Bend as this cold front moves through this
evening. Rain will end from west to east overnight as the cold
front passes. There will be a steep temp gradient overnight with
lows in the upper 30s in the northwest to the lower 50s in the
southeast Big Bend.

Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The primary threat will
be damaging winds and the possibility of a tornado or two. The FL
Panhandle and Big Bend will have the best chance for severe
weather since that is where the warm sector will be once the warm
front moves onshore. The AL counties and most of the GA counties
will likely be too stable to see strong thunderstorms. The
exception perhaps the southernmost GA counties. The track of the
low pressure will be particularly important to the severe risk as
that will largely determine how much instability makes it inland
from the coast. 0-6KM shear will be very strong this evening in
the 60-80 KT range. 0-1KM shear is forecast to be up to 50 KT
ahead of the cold front in FL. Currently, we expect the best
chance of severe weather in a corridor stretching across Gulf,
Liberty, Franklin, and Wakulla counties starting late this
afternoon and lasting into the evening hours. It is in this area
where there is the best model agreement on a narrow wedge of
instability making it inland and overlapping with the very strong
shear values.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Low pressure will be off the Carolinas by early Thursday morning,
with high pressure building into the local forecast area.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal on Thursday, with
highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s. After a cool start to
Friday, with lows in the mid 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast,
only a modest warmup is expected by afternoon. Sprawling 1040mb
high pressure center over the midwest will limit the warming as
northerly winds help to reinforce the cool airmass.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Sprawling surface high over the midwest will continue to limit the
warmup through Saturday, with temperatures remaining several
degrees below normal. There may also be a few showers along the
old frontal boundary in the southeastern Big Bend. A more
substantial warmup will begin on Sunday as an upper ridge begins
to build over the Gulf and the low level flow begins to veer to
the east. May also see a chance of rain return to the forecast as
the stalled front to the south moves back to the north as a warm
front. By Monday, temperatures will be back to near normal levels,
with highs pushing into the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon
as a Low approaches from the Gulf. MVFR and IFR ceilings this
afternoon will worsen as rain moves in this evening. IFR
conditions are likely this evening and into the overnight hours.
VFR conditions will return late tomorrow morning as the low moves
out. Moderate to heavy rain is expected at all terminals this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are likely at TLH, VLD and
ECP. Some storms may be severe. Gusty winds ahead of the front are
likely at TLH, VLD and ECP.

&&

.Marine...
Strong southerly winds will shift to the northwest from west to
east overnight as low pressure moves across the coastal waters.
May see a few gusts to gale force this evening, especially as a
line of strong thunderstorms moves across the waters, but expect
duration to be short so will maintain Small Craft Advisory. Winds
and seas will diminish below headline criteria on Thursday as high
pressure builds in behind the low. However, conditions will return
to exercise caution levels by Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Widespread rainfall of generally 1 to 2 inches will keep Wet Flag
conditions going throughout the CWA for the remainder of today and
tonight. Cooler and drier air will initially work into the region
behind this low pressure system, with a warming trend expected on
Sunday. However, dewpoints will also increase with the warmup,
keeping any potential for Red Flag conditions at bay for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.Hydrology...
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected through
tonight across the area with localized amounts in excess of 3
inches possible. These totals will cause rises along our area
rivers and bring several sites along the Kinchafoonee Creek and
the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and Upper Withlacoochee
Rivers into action stage. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson are both likely to crest just below
minor flood stage by the end of the week, but could crest higher
and earlier if rainfall totals end up being higher than currently
forecast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   43  55  38  60  40 / 100  10  10   0  10
Panama City   44  55  40  57  42 /  90   0   0   0  10
Dothan        37  51  35  53  35 / 100   0  10   0  10
Albany        39  53  36  56  37 / 100  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      44  55  41  60  41 / 100  10  10   0  10
Cross City    53  63  42  63  44 / 100  20  10   0  20
Apalachicola  47  56  43  59  46 / 100  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE