Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1038 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Previous forecast remains on track, no significant changes were
made.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]... MVFR to IFR conditions are likely today
at all terminals. Best chance of rain at ECP and DHN through this
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [317 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The remnant short wave trough will continue to shear out tonight
leaving weak upper level ridging in its place. The surface low will
also be filling by this evening. All of this will interrupt what
feeble push exists to move the cold front eastward. We expect the
boundary to pull up stationary about half way across the forecast
area overnight and then linger there for a couple of days. This will
require us to maintain PoPs in the forecast through this period with
30-40% east tapering off to 10-20% west in the drier air. While
there should be enough instability around for isolated
thunderstorms, the severe weather threat will be over. Because the
front will not be able to push through, we will only see some modest
drying across our western zones. Most of the area will remain
unseasonably warm and humid.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Energy in a western U.S. trough will be shunted well north of the
area as it moves east over a stubborn ridge that will be parked over
FL through Friday. The next trough to come out of the west will have
a bit more success penetrating into the Southeast and this may allow
another cold front to approach from the northwest this weekend.
There is still below average model consensus this far out, so it
remains to be seen if this frontal progression will occur or gets
delayed. That leaves us with a continuation of unseasonably warm and
humid conditions with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
not your typical November pattern to say the least!

.Marine...
The moderately strong onshore flow that has been in place across
the Northeast Gulf over the past couple of days will weaken this
afternoon with our western legs seeing a frontal wind shift to
westerlies. The small craft advisory will be cancelled and
replaced with a caution headline which will itself become
unnecessary later today. Winds will then become established out of
the east for the Wednesday through Friday period as high pressure
sets up north of the waters.

.Fire Weather...
With a moist pattern in place, there are no fire weather concerns.

.Hydrology...
As was discussed in the near term section, a number of favorable
parameters are in place to support flash flooding across the
western portion of the region. The threat is especially high for
Walton, Washington, and Holmes Counties in the Panhandle where
heavy rainfall totals in the last couple of days have the ground
saturated. Storm totals today will likely average in the 2-4 inch
range across the western half of the region with isolated maximum
totals in excess of 6 inches possible.

The flashier creeks and rivers of the Florida Panhandle are
especially vulnerable to flooding with this event. The Shoal River
is already in flood stage, and the tributary creeks of the
Choctawhatchee River are at action stages. Expect river flooding
along the Florida portion of the Choctawhatchee River system in the
days ahead.

Elsewhere, while some modest rises are possible on the Southern
Alabama rivers, the levels are sufficiently low that flood stages
are unlikely to be met.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  69  84  70  86 /  40  40  40  20  30
Panama City   81  68  79  70  82 /  80  20  20  20  30
Dothan        81  63  80  65  82 /  90  10  20  20  30
Albany        84  66  80  66  81 /  80  40  40  20  30
Valdosta      88  72  85  69  85 /  30  40  50  30  30
Cross City    88  73  87  70  87 /  30  30  40  30  30
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  82 /  60  30  30  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
     Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE CLUSTER SPRINGS   30.86N 86.20W
11/02/2015                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD IS WASHED OUT AT HARRISON RD AND BROWN RD.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1029 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TORNADO          1 S ELPINO              30.99N 84.23W
11/01/2015  F0               GRADY              GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF PINE
            LEVEL ROAD AND RIDGE ROAD. LAW ENFORCEMENT WITNESSED
            TORNADO. THERE WERE REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN WITH
            MINOR DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOME ROOF. DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH
            EF0 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 75 MPH.

0443 PM     TORNADO          WNW HARTSFIELD          31.22N 83.98W
11/01/2015  F0               COLQUITT           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HARTSFIELD.
            DAMAGE CONSISTED OF DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A HOUSE AS WELL
            AS METAL SIDING RIPPED OFF THE SIDE OF THE HOUSE. DOERUN
            POLICE ALSO REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OCCASIONALLY DROPPING
            AND RISING NEAR THIGPEN TRAIL ROAD. DAMAGE CONSISTENT
            WITH EF0 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 65 MPH.

&&

CAMP