Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Tallahassee, FL

151 
WGUS72 KTAE 021412
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
812 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015

FLC131-021421-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-151102T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WALTON FL-
812 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WALTON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 815 AM
CST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED....HOWEVER...FLOODING MAY BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3099 8604 3057 8603 3046 8615
      3045 8619 3042 8622 3040 8621 3035 8625
      3038 8639 3039 8638 3038 8633 3045 8631
      3048 8632 3046 8639

$$

11-MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
06 UTC surface analysis showed a 1009 mb surface low very near the
Mouth of the Mississippi River. A warm front extended from this
low across the far western Fla Panhandle through Southern Alabama
and into South Central Georgia. South of this warm frontal
boundary, an anomalously moist air mass for November is present.
Not only are surface dew points summer-like (mid 70s),
precipitable water values are well in excess of 2 inches. At 500
mb, vapor imagery and 00 UTC analysis data show a low across
Eastern Texas with the next shortwave moving across the Western
Gulf toward the region. With strong ridging in place east of the
Florida Peninsula, a rather strong band of 60kt southwesterly flow
is in place across the region. The nearly unidirectional flow
aloft, though fast, will create an environment for training storms
today.

Hi-res guidance has been helpful in assessing the convective
evolution of the storm system. Most of these models have handled
well the organization of a convective band just west of the region
after 07z and show it slowly progressing eastward across much of
the region today. Relied heavily on the ECAM guidance for
today's PoP configuration, which shows near 90 percent rain
chances across Srn Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle. There
will likely be a sharp gradient on the east side though as deep
layer forcing decreases significantly across South Central Georgia
and Florida Big Bend.

There are two primary forecast concerns today - heavy rainfall and
the threat for severe weather. With the warm front pulling more
north of the region, the low level flow is not as curved as 12
hours ago. Nevertheless, shear remains strong across the region,
so some storms could become strong to severe today, with isolated
tornadoes and damaging winds being the threats.

The flood threat looks to be potentially more significant,
especially across the already saturated Florida Panhandle and into
Southeastern Alabama. Given a very moist air mass, and the
unidirectional flow aloft, think an area of 2-4 inches of rain
across the western portion of the region is likely today with
isolated maximum totals in excess of 6 inches. Given that rain rates
will be especially high in the tropical air mass, will continue
the flash flood watch and extend eastward into Southwestern
Georgia to match with areas that received heavy rainfall on
Sunday.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The remnant short wave trough will continue to shear out tonight
leaving weak upper level ridging in its place. The surface low will
also be filling by this evening. All of this will interrupt what
feeble push exists to move the cold front eastward. We expect the
boundary to pull up stationary about half way across the forecast
area overnight and then linger there for a couple of days. This will
require us to maintain PoPs in the forecast through this period with
30-40% east tapering off to 10-20% west in the drier air. While
there should be enough instability around for isolated
thunderstorms, the severe weather threat will be over. Because the
front will not be able to push through, we will only see some modest
drying across our western zones. Most of the area will remain
unseasonably warm and humid.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Energy in a western U.S. trough will be shunted well north of the
area as it moves east over a stubborn ridge that will be parked over
FL through Friday. The next trough to come out of the west will have
a bit more success penetrating into the Southeast and this may allow
another cold front to approach from the northwest this weekend.
There is still below average model consensus this far out, so it
remains to be seen if this frontal progression will occur or gets
delayed. That leaves us with a continuation of unseasonably warm and
humid conditions with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
not your typical November pattern to say the least!

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Poor flying conditions will continue through
much of the period as a warm front lifts northward and an upper
level trough moves eastward. MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely
across the area through much of the period with showers and a few
thunderstorms developing from west to east.

&&

.Marine...
The moderately strong onshore flow that has been in place across
the Northeast Gulf over the past couple of days will weaken this
afternoon with our western legs seeing a frontal wind shift to
westerlies. The small craft advisory will be cancelled and
replaced with a caution headline which will itself become
unnecessary later today. Winds will then become established out of
the east for the Wednesday through Friday period as high pressure
sets up north of the waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With a moist pattern in place, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
As was discussed in the near term section, a number of favorable
parameters are in place to support flash flooding across the
western portion of the region. The threat is especially high for
Walton, Washington, and Holmes Counties in the Panhandle where
heavy rainfall totals in the last couple of days have the ground
saturated. Storm totals today will likely average in the 2-4 inch
range across the western half of the region with isolated maximum
totals in excess of 6 inches possible.

The flashier creeks and rivers of the Florida Panhandle are
especially vulnerable to flooding with this event. The Shoal River
is already in flood stage, and the tributary creeks of the
Choctawhatchee River are at action stages. Expect river flooding
along the Florida portion of the Choctawhatchee River system in the
days ahead.

Elsewhere, while some modest rises are possible on the Southern
Alabama rivers, the levels are sufficiently low that flood stages
are unlikely to be met.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  69  84  70  86 /  40  40  40  20  30
Panama City   81  68  79  70  82 /  80  20  20  20  30
Dothan        81  63  80  65  82 /  90  10  20  20  30
Albany        84  66  80  66  81 /  80  40  40  20  30
Valdosta      88  72  85  69  85 /  30  40  50  30  30
Cross City    88  73  87  70  87 /  30  30  40  30  30
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  82 /  60  30  30  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
     Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
     Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
152 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            2 SSW EUCHEEANNA        30.62N 86.06W
11/01/2015                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERWOOD ROAD AT RED HILL ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0930 PM     FLOOD            2 SSE LIBERTY           30.80N 86.21W
11/01/2015                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RALEY ROAD AT DR NELSON ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

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