Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Storms initiated as expected along a surface trough just north of
the Tri-State region and along the Panhandle seabreeze front. These
storms are quickly moving east in the westerly flow regime. Expect
these storms to consolidate into a larger more uniform area of
storms as they move east. Additionally, a complex of storms moving
through central AL/GA will drop into the region behind this initial
round of storms and last into the late evening. Based on the
evolution of storms thus far, there certainly is an low-end threat
for isolated to scattered severe wind gusts, though the threat seems
a bit lower than past days. Expect convection to remain mostly
offshore by midnight.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
A weak frontal boundary will slowly move to the south over the
next couple of days as an area of low pressure develops off the
Southern States in the Western Atlantic. Deep layer moisture will
increase ahead of the frontal zone on Friday, resulting in
increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially during
the afternoon hours. Some of the hi-res members indicate the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall across the Florida Big
Bend. At this point, amounts aren't heavy enough to justify a
flash flood watch, though this may become necessary if future ECAM
runs suggest an increasing flood threat on Friday.

By Saturday, as the area of low pressure slowly develops off the
Florida Coast in the Atlantic, drier air will begin to move in
from the Southern Appalachians into our region. This should
diminish rain chances across Southern Alabama and Georgia, with
afternoon storm activity focused more into the Florida Big Bend.
With less thunderstorm activity high temperatures across our
northern zones should be in the mid to upper 90s. The drier air
moving in should result in heat indices staying below heat
advisory critieria.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Model guidance throughout the first part of the long term period
agrees that the area of low pressure off the Florida East coast
will remain nearly stationary through Monday before moving off to
the NE into the Atlantic on Tuesday. As a result, drier air will
continue to move into the region around the western side of this
low pressure area. This will result in lower than normal rain
chances through Tuesday across the forecast area. By Wednesday
with the low pressure area well removed from the region, deep
layer moisture will increase returning near normal rain chances to
the forecast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms,
though if a storm impacts a station LIFR conditions and winds
around 30 knots will be possible. Only patchy fog is expected
tomorrow morning within an hour of sunrise and should remain MVFR.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate westerly flow will intensify through Friday with winds
reaching cautionary conditions at times Friday evening. The
gradient will weaken on Saturday night with a return to more
typical summertime winds expected by the first of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
The wet pattern will continue through the weekend, precluding any
hazardous fire weather conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
There's some potential for heavy rainfall across the region on
Friday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, with the greatest
threat focused into the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Only the
Steinhatchee River is running above normal at this time. With
widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain expected over the next 48
hours, only modest rises are anticipated on the smaller rivers in
the SE Florida Big Bend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  93  77  94  75 /  50  80  40  50  20
Panama City   80  91  77  92  78 /  40  70  40  40  20
Dothan        74  95  74  97  74 /  60  60  30  20  10
Albany        74  95  75  97  73 /  40  60  30  30  10
Valdosta      74  91  75  93  73 /  60  80  40  50  20
Cross City    76  90  77  92  75 /  50  80  50  60  30
Apalachicola  80  90  79  90  78 /  40  80  40  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY