Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Zonal flow aloft will transition to a bit more northwesterly
through the day as a shortwave digs through the Midwest. At the
surface, the pattern of the last few days will continue today.
Extending from low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic is a surface
trough through central Georgia and southeast Alabama. Convection
will initiate along this trough first today, then along the
seabreeze fronts in north Florida. Eventually outflow from each
cluster of storms will merge and force new storm initiation across
the central part of the region this evening. The environment is
similar to the past few days, with plenty of SBCAPE and
marginally high dTheta-E values, and is expected to support
isolated to scattered gusty winds in downbursts.

Temperatures will be above average again today, in the middle to
upper 90s. Heat indices will soar once again into the 106-110
range, so care should be taken when working, or spending any time,
outdoors.

&&

.Prev Discussion [414 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

In the upper levels, there is a ridge centered over the Southern
Great Plains and a trough extending down the east coast. At the
sfc, low pressure will linger near the Carolinas with a cool
boundary just north of the region. The best chance for rain will
be Friday afternoon/evening with POPs around 50 to 60 percent. On
Saturday, the boundary shifts southward bringing the best chance
for rain to the southern and southeastern counties of the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous in the
afternoon/evening hours and more isolated otherwise. Highs will be
in the low to mid 90s. It will be humid with heat indices in the
100 to 107 degree range. It will likely be just under heat
advisory criteria.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels, a high height center will be centered over
TX and a low height center will be forming over FL. By Monday, the
high height center will be centered over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley and the low height center will be gone. At the sfc, a
broad, weak area of low pressure will linger along the Gulf Coast.
With upper level ridging and weak sfc features, rain chances will
begin to decrease to more typical summertime levels. Afternoon
highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices are expected to
be around 100 degrees on Sunday and Monday and will increase as
the week progresses.

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]

VFR conditions existed at all the terminals at TAF issuance time,
and should persist through the period other than in scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Storm chances will begin sooner in the
western parts of the region, at ECP and DHN, and shift east as the
afternoon progresses. Any of the terminals could be affected. IFR
visibilities would be possible.

.Marine...

Today, winds will be moderate and westerly. By Friday afternoon,
winds will likely reach cautionary levels. Expect seas of 2 to 3
feet today and 3 to 4 feet on Friday. An unsettled weather pattern
will be in place through the weekend, bringing increased chances
for rain and thunderstorms.

.Fire Weather...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected the next several
days with fairly high relative humidity. Red flag conditions are not
expected. Lightning activity in storms in the next several days is
expected to be quite high.

.Hydrology...

The wet pattern will continue through the weekend. River levels
are generally a little low at this time. 1 to 2.5 inches of rain
is expected through the weekend. River flooding is not expected.
Localized heavy rain in slow moving storms could cause some flash
flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  77  93  76  94 /  40  30  60  40  40
Panama City   90  80  90  79  90 /  30  30  50  40  40
Dothan        94  75  93  75  95 /  70  40  50  40  30
Albany        94  76  94  76  93 /  70  50  50  40  30
Valdosta      95  76  93  75  94 /  70  40  60  40  40
Cross City    93  78  91  77  93 /  40  30  70  50  70
Apalachicola  92  80  92  78  90 /  30  30  60  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening FOR Coastal Franklin.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT