Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The north Florida seabreeze fronts and a surface trough across
Georgia and Alabama have initiated two areas of scattered storms
this afternoon. Convection has been more robust across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia, with a few marginally severe
downburst signatures. Along the seabreeze, storms have been better
behaved, though the southeast Big Bend still has the potential to
see a few strong to severe storms with near 4000-5000 J/kg SBCAPE
and 35+ dTheta-E values. Further north into Alabama and Georgia a
similar environment exists, just slightly lower CAPE. The severe
threat will continue there as well.

As has been the case for the past few days, expect storms to wind
down in the late evening, with convection transitioning offshore
after midnight.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The ridge over the central plains will intensify as it moves east
through the period. At the surface a low will form on the coast of
the Carolinas. Increased moisture with this low will keep rain
chances slightly higher than climo. Highs will be slightly cooler,
in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be just below advisory
criteria in the 104-108 range.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

On Saturday, a surface low will settle over central Florida. This
will lead to higher rain chances of 30-60%. This low will move
south on starting on Sunday and we will return to a more typical
summer pattern with PoPs ranging from 20-40%. Highs will be in the
low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s. Higher humidity will
keep heat indices in the 100-105 range.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] As afternoon convection as evolved, it appears
the best chance for TSRA will be at DHN and ABY. In some cases
these storms may produce strong to severe downbursts. VFR will
prevail through the remainder of the TAF, with only patchy MVFR
within an hour of sunrise possible.

&&

.Marine...

Through Saturday winds will be moderate from the west and seas 2
to 4 feet. Starting Sunday winds will decrease and shift to the
east. There is a chance of thunderstorms through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected the next several
days with fairly high relative humidity. Red flag conditions are
not expected. Lightning activity in storms in the next several
days is expected to be quite high.

&&

.Hydrology...

An active pattern will remain in place for the area through the
weekend with rainfall totals over the next 5 days of 1.5-2.5".
Since our area rivers are at normal or even low flow levels, this
is not expected to cause any widespread flooding. However,
depending on how storms develop, there may be enhanced chances for
localized flooding, particularly in the Florida Big Bend where
we've already seen several days with higher rainfall totals over
the past week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  95  77  93  76 /  30  40  30  50  40
Panama City   81  88  80  87  80 /  20  40  30  40  40
Dothan        76  94  76  93  75 /  30  50  30  40  40
Albany        76  93  75  92  75 /  30  50  40  40  40
Valdosta      76  95  76  91  75 /  40  50  30  50  40
Cross City    77  92  77  90  76 /  30  40  30  50  50
Apalachicola  81  91  80  91  80 /  20  40  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE TURNER CITY       31.59N 84.07W
07/22/2015                   DOUGHERTY          GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POLE DOWN ON A RESIDENCE ON CORDELE ROAD NEAR STATON
            DRIVE.

&&

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
420 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E TURNER CITY         31.59N 84.05W
07/22/2015                   DOUGHERTY          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ALONG BRANCH ROAD.

&&

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
429 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     LIGHTNING        SW TURNER CITY          31.59N 84.11W
07/22/2015                   DOUGHERTY          GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A RESIDENCE ALONG BLAYLOCK STREET.

&&

JLF