Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper-level flow across the local area will remain zonal this
afternoon, with no synoptic scale forcing for ascent. At the
surface, a 12z subjective analysis places as quasi-stationary
front essentially west to east from Arkansas through the Mid-
Atlantic. Further south, a weak surface trough extends southwest
through central SC and central GA.

Steering flow this afternoon is forecast to be mostly westward,
possibly with a bit of a southwest component. PWATs sampled from
this morning's sounding and derived from satellites suggest near
seasonal moisture levels. All this would favor near normal
seabreeze convection associated with a blend of regime 4 and 5.
Thus, expect much of this afternoon's convection to be confined to
north Florida, spreading inland and reaching the southern tier of
our GA and AL counties by this evening. Additionally, the
aforementioned trough to our north will likely be a focus for
convection in that area as well. Outflow from storms to our north
may generate late afternoon storms dropping south through GA and
AL, eventually interacting with outflow from earlier seabreeze
storms. SBCAPE and dTheta-E forecasts would suggest the strongest
storms be confined over north Florida, especially the eastern Big
Bend and Suwannee Valley.

In addition to the potential for thunderstorms, highs in the
middle to upper 90s and heat indices, on average, around 110 will
plague the region once again. Take necessary precautions if
working, or spending much time, outdoors.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR will prevail outside of storms today. The highest confidence
for thunderstorms will be at DHN, TLH, and VLD. Patchy MVFR fog
will be around tonight, but confidence regarding terminal impacts
remains too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [459 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

In the upper levels, there is a ridge centered over the Southern
Great Plains and a trough extending down the east coast. This
pattern intensifies on Friday. At the sfc, low pressure will
linger near the Carolinas with a stationary boundary over the
region. As a result, rain chances will be high for both days
(around 50 to 60 POPs). Showers and thunderstorms will be more
numerous in the afternoon/evening hours and more isolated
otherwise. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. It will be humid
with heat indices in the 104 to 108 degree range. It will likely
be just under heat advisory criteria.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels, a high height center will be centered over
TX and a low height center will be forming over FL. At the sfc,
low pressure over the region will begin to move out on Sunday. As
a result, rain chances will begin to decrease to more typical
summertime levels. However, on Saturday showers and thunderstorms
are likely particularly in the afternoon/evening hours. Afternoon
highs will be in the low 90s. Humidity will be high on Saturday,
so heat indices in the afternoon hours will be in the 102 to 108
degree range. For the rest of the week, heat indices are expected
to be around 100 degrees.

.Marine...

Winds will be moderate and westerly for the next few days.
Seas of 2 to 3 feet likely, possibly up to 4 feet on Friday. An
unsettled weather pattern will be in place for the next week,
bringing increased chances for rain and thunderstorms.

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected this week with
high relative humidity and scattered to numerous storms each day.

.Hydrology...

An active pattern will remain in place for the area through the
weekend with rainfall totals over the next 5 days of 1.5-2.5".
Since our area rivers are at normal or even low flow levels, this
is not expected to cause any widespread flooding. However,
depending on how storms develop, there may be enhanced chances for
localized flooding, particularly in the Florida Big Bend where
we've already seen several days with higher rainfall totals over
the past week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  77  94  78  93 /  50  30  50  30  60
Panama City   90  80  90  80  89 /  40  30  50  30  50
Dothan        96  76  94  76  94 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        97  77  94  75  93 /  50  40  50  40  50
Valdosta      98  77  95  77  93 /  50  30  50  40  60
Cross City    93  78  92  78  91 /  50  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  92  81  90  79  90 /  30  30  40  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE